Buresh Blog

Local Thunderstorms... "Dolly" Landfall

2008-07-23T23:24:00Z

The upper level disturbance did a good job of triggering widespread showers & heavy thunderstorms Wed. midday. A few trees dropped on homes in & near Ponte Vedra & a 22-yr. old male was struck by lightning but only sustained "minor injuries" on Jax's Westside.
As the disturbance moves away, storms will be more widely scattered Thu. afternoon due to some sinking air (subsidence) on the backside of the disturbance. But where storms occur, they will again be locally very heavy, though the tendency will be for the storms to pop up, become strong then quickly go back down.
Weak troughing (keeping upper level air relatively cool) will persist over the Eastern U.S. Fri. through the weekend into early next week so expect quite a few afternoon/early evening thunderstorms with heavy downpours & lots of lightning. It's a pattern not unusual for this time of yr. but even a little wetter than avg.

"Dolly" roared into S. Texas at midday Wed. as a low-end Cat. 2 hurricane. "Dolly" tightened up quite a bit overnight into early Wed. & if the storm would have had much more time over water, we could have been looking at a Cat. 3 storm. Rainfall from "Dolly" helped set a couple of records in Brownsville:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
0428 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT BROWNSVILLE...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.91 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT BROWNSVILLE TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.01 SET IN 1929.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...RECORD MAXIMUM MONTH OF JULY RAINFALL SET AT BROWNSVILLE...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 10.81 INCHES FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS SET AT
BROWNSVILLE TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 9.43 INCHES SET IN
1976. *NOTE THAT THIS IS PRELIMINARY DATA AS RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.*

Now the tropics will turn much quieter. Several tropical waves are in the Atlantic Basin but nothing that's organizing. It would seem maybe 1 or 2 named storms during the next 3-4 weeks before an upturn again in activity (see Tue. July 22 post).

Stormy... "Dolly" Headed for Rio Grande Landfall... Tropical Activity to Drop For a While

2008-07-22T23:33:00Z

Thunderstorms Mon. evening in Tennessee into Georgia helped develop what's termed a "mesoscale vorticity maximum" -- or, more simply, a weak upper level disturbance. The disturbance moved into Southeast Ga. during peak heating Tue. triggering numerous thunderstorms that moved south & east. The sea breeze & many outflow boundaries also helped focus the storms. And this may just be round #1 in what could be a pretty active night of storms which is atypical for this time of year as we usually see our late day storms die out in the evening. But a pretty strong upper level disturbance is diving southeast into Alabama & Georgia & has ignited clusters of storms. It's possible that some of these storms will continue overnight across the First Coast despite earlier storms & diurnal cooling. Yet another disturbance will move into the area Wed. afternoon & should again help afternoon thunderstorms to erupt across the area. Intensity & coverage could be limited some, however, by cloud cover.

"Dolly" will be rolling into far South Texas & far Northern Mexico Wed. Go to our "Hurricane Center" & "Talking the Tropics With Mike" for specific info. Some
interesting sites to look at as "Dolly" comes ashore: webcams from Padre Island & Brownsville.... "Hurricane Hollow" ....& W. Gulf & coastal Texas buoys.

Speaking of the tropics....the Madden-Julian Oscillation has "done its thing". Velocity
Potential Anomalies (green indicates upper level divergence which aids convection, brown is the opposite) have maxed out over the E. Pacific & most of the Atlantic Basin. Large areas of upper level divergence often times correlate to areas susceptible to tropical development. The last large area of "upward motion" helped several tropical cyclones in the E. Pacific as well as "Bertha", "Cristobal" & "Dolly" in the Atlantic Basin. The tail end of this upward motion is now in the E. Atlantic & is probably helping the strong wave near the Cape Verde Islands. So we will now go into a period of "sinking motion" -- large scale subsidence (where air rises in one area, it has to go down in another) behind the large area of upper level divergence which should result in less tropical activity. THAT DOES NOT MEAN NO TROPICAL CYCLONES!....but at least fewer & less frequent. Timing the movement of upward & downward motion is not easy but is generally roughly about every 3-6 weeks or so & can be an especially good indicator of tropical activity when the ENSO is near neutral such as it is now (trending out of the strong La Nina). Our next period of upward motion would appear to be somewhere in mid August, maybe a little later OR SO. This would correspond with the climatological high end of the hurricane season, so it would be no surprise if mid Aug. to early or mid Sept. would be "tropically busy".

Typical Midsummer Weather... Kingfish Tourney... Never Too Hot for the Zoo

2008-07-21T23:01:00Z

A very typical mid to late July week of weather ahead for the First Coast. Late night/early morning temps. will only dip to the low to mid 70s (closer to 80 at the beaches) with midday through early afternoon temps. soaring to near or a little above 90....& lots of humidity....& afternoon/early evening thunderstorms with localized very heavy rain & frequent lightning. Storms will increase in number Tue. & that trend will continue for the rest of the week.

And as active as the tropics are, no problem for the First Coast. The next pulse of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) could be the most problematic -- later in Aug. into Sept. -- more on that tomorrow (Tue.).

The annual Greater Jacksonville Kingfish Tournament is this week with lots of festivities all week long leading up to the fishing competition Fri. & Sat. Weather generally looks o.k. as seas will not be bad averaging 2-3 feet, maybe 4 feet at times offshore & only light to moderate winds that'll average south & southwest with an occasional swing to the southeast close to shore later in the afternoon. There will be a daily threat of scattered afternoon thunderstorms that will be locally intense but will also favor coastal & inland areas. There could be a strong enough westerly component to the mid & upper level winds to guide a few more storms farther offshore by Wed., Thu. & Fri.

As hot as it might be, it's never too hot to go to the zoo. In fact, we took the kids this morning to our beautiful Jax Zoo & Gardens. Remember there are plenty of ways to stay cool -- misters, air conditioned indoor exhibits, Snow Biz & restaurants. And now the zoo is offering a discount -- half off admission -- when the temp. is forecast to be 95 degrees or higher. Our First Alert Forecast is actually "only" 93 for Tue., but that's apparently close enough for the zoo because the Tue. coupon has been posted. Click here.

New Depression... Hot Weekend!... "Earth Gauge": UV Awareness Month, Lake Loss, Ice Sheets

2008-07-19T04:11:00Z

Our "swirl" could become a tropical cyclone this weekend as it moves toward the Carolina's. By late Fri. evening the low had become a tropical depression, & it'll be a close call on whether or not it can become a tropical storm because of its proximity to land. Either way, the effects on the First Coast will be minimal -- some heavy showers Fri. evening,
offshore winds for the weekend, & that's pretty much it. More significant impacts will be confined to the Carolina's including some much-needed rainfall.
As usual....the tropics will be updated throughout the weekend at "Talking the Tropics With Mike".
The local weather story this weekend will end up being the return of the heat. High temperatures will soar to the mid 90s with heat indices near or even a little above 100. Thunderstorms will occur each afternoon but will be scattered. Where the storms occur, expect frequent lightning & blinding downpours.

Earth Gauge: UV-Aware
July is UV Awareness Month! Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun causes sunburn and other health effects, including skin cancer and cataracts. Everyone should protect themselves from the sun, and some groups can be particularly susceptible to health effects from sun exposure:
Kids: About 25 percent of a person's lifetime exposure to UV radiation occurs before the age of 18, meaning that it is especially important to protect children - who may not know how to properly protect themselves - from sun exposure.
Gardeners and Farmers: The National Gardening Association found that the average gardener spends 2.8 hours per week in the garden. Because they spend lots of time outside, gardeners and farmers can be more at-risk for skin cancer.
Older Individuals: Older people's skin cells are less able to repair DNA damage caused by exposure to the sun. There is also evidence that UV-B radiation from the sun puts older people at increased risk of developing cataracts.
Tip: When possible, work and play outside during the cooler parts of the day - before 10:00 a.m. and after 4:00 p.m. - and remember that it is possible to burn on a cloudy day, even when the sun doesn't seem bright. Use a sunscreen with a Sun Protection Factor (SPF) of at least 15 that provides protection from both UVA and UVB rays. Apply sunscreen liberally and often, and wear protective clothing - hat, sunglasses, long-sleeved shirt, and pants.

Added Bonus: Gardening in the early morning or evening is better for your plants, too! Water evaporates more quickly in the sun, so watering during the cooler parts of the day means your plants retain more water. Transplants will also fare better if performed during cooler parts of the day, when there is less stress from the sun's heat.
(Sources: The Skin Cancer Foundation. "Sage Advice." ; Fosdick, Dean (Associated Press), July 9, 2008. "A Growing Problem." The Washington Post Express; U.S. EPA Aging Initiative. "UV Radiation and Health Effects."; U.S. EPA Office of Air and Radiation. September 2006. "The Sun, UV, and You: A Guide to Sunwise Behavior."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Fact: Looming Lake Loss
Most of the Arctic has warmed considerably over the last 30 years, and parts of Alaska have warmed by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Despite an increase in precipitation during this same period, the region is losing its lakes. In Alaska, for example, the total area of the region's lakes has shrunk by between 14 and 30 percent. In Siberia, there has been a six percent decrease in total lake surface area. This decrease would be greater if it were not offset by an increase in lakes at the most northern regions. Both the increases and decreases are part of the same process. As the ground warms, pockets in the soil collapse and depressions in the surface form. At first, water flows into these depressions and creates lakes. This water, however, facilitates warming of deeper layers of the soil. These layers then become permeable, and the lake water drains into the subsurface and the lakes disappear. Because waterfowl inhabit these lakes in the summer, the lake losses threaten the hunting opportunities that the region's inhabitants have enjoyed for generations.
(Source: Smith, LC et al. "Disappearing Arctic Lakes." Science 308 (2005): 1429-1430 and Lovett, Richard. "Warming May Be Drying Up Alaska's Lakes, Photo Study Says." National Geographic News: 17 October 2006. Accessed online 14 July 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate in the News – "Intensified Ice Sheet Movements Do Not Affect Rising Sea Levels." – Science Daily, July 11, 2008 ......While meltwater is rapidly increasing the pace of ice sheet movement in Greenland, new research suggests that this process is not likely to be a major contributing factor to rising sea levels.

Have a great & safe weekend...stay cool!

Coastal "Swirl"... British Open Weather

2008-07-18T02:56:00Z

Our Eastern Gulf "swirl" has turned into the "First Coast swirl" as the low pressure that had its beginning in the Eastern Gulf then moved across Fl. Wed. now resides near & over the Gulf Stream east of Jax. Unseasonably cool sea surface temps. continue from near Brunswick to Melbourne, but with the low over the Gulf Stream, water temps. are more than warm enough to support tropical development not to mention general sea surface temps. are warmer between Brunswick & the Carolina's. The low will move very slowly northward through the weekend & just might have enough time to develop. Having said that, any significant impacts on the First Coast will be limited. We'll still see bands of heavy rain & a few storms rotate southward over the First Coast through Fri. evening with a somewhat elevated risk of rip currents at area beaches.

The British Open is underway at Southport, England at the Royal Birkdale course. As is often the case, weather dictated play. A storm will remain in the area through Sat. causing gusty winds & some rain before Sun. turns brighter. Daytime temps. will only be near 60 degrees (15-16 Celsius). Click here for BBC weather.

Low Pressure=More Rain... NOAA Global June Numbers

2008-07-16T22:42:00Z

The low pressure system that was west of Tampa & showing true signs of organization Tue. night/early Wed. suddenly "jumped" inland Wed. which pretty much rules out any tropical development. However, an upper level low is still over the extreme Eastern Gulf & the low has been sort of recentering itself from time to time. Should the low manage to reform in the Eastern Gulf then it would again become a system to watch.
In any case, we should still see an increase in rain through Thu. night as the broad low pressure area slowly moves north. Showers & a few storms will produce heavy downpours & -- where training (cell after cell) occurs -- some excessive rainfall will occur.

NOAA: Eighth Warmest June on Record for Globe

The combined average global land and ocean surface temperatures for June 2008 ranked eighth warmest for June since worldwide records began in 1880, according to an analysis by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Also, globally it was the ninth warmest January - June period on record.

Global Highlights

* The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2008 was 60.8 degrees F, which is 0.9 degrees F above the 20th century mean of 59.9 degrees F.

* Separately, the global land surface temperature was 57.2 degrees F, which is 1.3 degrees F above the 20th century mean of 55.9 degrees F.

* The global ocean surface temperature was 62.2 degrees F, which is 0.7 degrees F above the 20th century mean of 61.5 degrees F.

* For the January - June period, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was
57.1 degrees F, which is 0.8 degrees F about the 20th century mean of 56.3 degrees F.
Other Highlights
* Northern Hemisphere Arctic sea ice extent for June 2008 ranked third lowest for June since records began in 1979. Southern Hemisphere Antarctic sea ice extent for June 2008 was above the 1979-2000 mean, ranking as the second largest June extent.

* La Nina conditions transitioned to a neutral phase during June.
* Torrential rain lashed southern China from June 7-18. These were followed by more heavy rain from typhoon Fengshen late in the month. The downpours caused widespread floods and affected more than five million people. June 2008 was the wettest month ever for Hong Kong, Guangzhou, and Macao based on records that began in 1884.

Heavy Rain Potential... Cloud Photo

2008-07-15T22:54:00Z

Could be a soaker the next couple days. Weak low pressure is developing over the far Northeast Gulf of Mexico. This system will pump plenty of moisture northward across the First Coast with on-&-off rain & storms through Thu. that will not necessarily be confined to the afternoon/early evening thanks to all the moisture + east/southeast winds coming off the Atlantic. Rainfall should be widespread Wed.-Thu. averaging 1-3" with locally higher amounts. Localized excessive rains could cause some flooding depending on how the bands set up. It's not out of the question this low could try to take on tropical characteristics but any real significant tropical development seems unlikley given the low's proximity to land & some dry air over the deep south. Still...water over the Northeast Gulf is very warm (90+ in some cases while upwelling continues to keep the First Coast waters unseasonably cool) ... shear is pretty low ... & a weak trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. all add up to ingredients that could favor some development.

Check out the photo below from Denise & Jon Gussler -- Middleburg, FL. showing a shadow extending above a bank of cumulus clouds.

Stormy... Lightning Stike... Wahoo!... "Cancer's Unexpected Blessings"

2008-07-14T22:51:00Z

Showers & thunderstorms will continue to be active much of this week but much will hinge on possible low pressure developing over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.
In fact, we might need to watch this area for possible tropical development if the low can stay away from land. The combination of persistent clusters of thunderstorms + a weak frontal boundary/trough of low pressure + a mature MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) all could spell trouble. Any development would likely be gradual, but it'll be interesting to watch. This as the tropics "heat up"...."Bertha" is near Bermuda...a tropical wave is in the Southeast Caribbean...a strong wave is in the Central Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles...& another wave is in the E. Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Any of these have
the potential to develop, & it seems likely that we'll have "Cristobal" sometime this week.

Lots of lightning around the First Coast the last few days. Check out the photo below by Greg Palmer as lightning strikes in Ponte Vedra near the Walden Chase Subdivision.

And speaking of photos....check out the Wahoo I landed Fri. while deep sea fishing with some friends near the Gulf Stream off the coast of Ponce Inlet just south
of Daytona. Turned out to be 35 lbs. & is easily the biggest fish I've ever caught. Good fun. (Watch out for the speed trap in Ponce Inlet!!)

On a much more somber note...Sat. marked the unfortunate passing of Tony Snow. Snow battled cancer with courage & faith. Read his "Cancer's Unexpected Blessings" written in July, 2007.

Cumulonimbus Rainbow... "Earth Gauge": Lightning, Higher Lows, Jellyfish Plague

2008-07-11T02:37:00Z

Take a look at this beautiful photo sent to me from Josh Smith on Jacksonville's Northside. Notice the rainbow-effect above the towering cumulus/cumulonimbus cloud which was caused by the sun's rays shooting through high level cirrus clouds made up of ice crystals. This creates a prism effect as the sun reflects & refracts off & through the ice crystals -- gorgeous!

Earth Gauge: Caught in a Storm
Many people will be visiting lake or ocean beaches, camping, hiking, and participating in other outdoor activities during the summer months. As you plan for outdoor recreation activities, remember to keep lightning safety in mind. In 2008, there have been 11 lightning fatalities in the U.S. (one in Florida), and all of them have occurred outdoors.
Tip: Always check your local weather forecast before heading outside and plan ahead. If you do not think outdoor activities will be safe, consider rescheduling for another day. If you do find yourself outside during a thunderstorm, these tips can help you stay safe in various scenarios:
Camping: The best place to seek shelter from a thunderstorm is in your car. Tents and picnic shelters will keep you dry, but offer no protection from a lightning strike.
Lake or Ocean Beaches: Again, head for your car. Beach picnic shacks and pavilions will not offer protection from lightning.
On the Water: Most lightning injuries and deaths happen on small boats that do not have a cabin. If you are on a small boat and lightning is imminent, anchor the boat and get as low as possible. Larger boats with cabins (especially those with lightning protection systems), are relatively safe - stay inside the cabin and avoid touching metal objects.
No Shelter Available: If you absolutely cannot find shelter during a thunderstorm, you should squat out in the open in a low-lying area on the tips of your toes in a “crouch” position, away from other members of your group. Do not lie down. Stay away from tall, isolated objects (such as lone trees), and avoid contact with fences, poles, and backpacks, which can conduct electricity.
(Sources: National Weather Service. "2008 Lightning Fatalities."; "Lightning Risk Reduction Outdoors.")
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Fact: Higher Lows
Getting a break from exposure to hot temperatures is important for preventing heat related illnesses. While people usually associate extreme daytime temperatures with heat stroke, if it does not cool sufficiently during the night, the body will not get a break from the heat. In North America over the last 50 years, average nighttime low temperatures have risen faster than average daytime high temperatures. There has been a 50 percent increase in the number of unusually warm nights, and nights with temperatures that would have fallen into the top tenth percentile during the 1950’s now fall into the top fifteenth percentile. Almost all of this increase has occurred since 1975.
(Source: United States. Climate Change Science Program. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Synthesis Assessment Product 3.3: GPO. 2008.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate in the News – "Climate Change Brings Jellyfish Plague to Europe's Beaches ." – Deutsche Welle, July 5, 2008. Warming waters, which have lengthened jellyfish reproductive cycles, and overfishing have allowed jellyfish populations to increase along Europe's coastlines.

Personally.....a somber day....it was on this day -- July 10th last year -- that my mother was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. May She Rest in Peace. "My Journey".

Out of the office 'til Mon.....have a nice & safe weekend.

Hot... Haze & Saharan Dust... NOAA June Weather Summary

2008-07-09T22:26:00Z

Clouds were slow to break up Wed. so storms were limited. Warmer temps. aloft (less unstable) will mean storms will be more widely scattered Thu.-Fri. & will allow temps. to soar into the low to mid 90s. But where storms occur, they will still be locally very heavy.

Have you noticed some haze in the sky? It appears the haze is a product of African dust all the way from the Saharan Desert. The dust has been more prominent in Southern Florida & appears to be breaking up on satellite photographs, but it still should be a little hazy the next couple days. Such dust plumes are not at all uncommon in the summer & early fall & were especially dense last summer. The dust is often times associated with dry mid & upper level air...can hinder tropical cyclone development...indicate areas where there will be less thunderstorm acitivity (drier air)....& cause a colorful sunset/sunrise. The dust is driven westward by strong high pressure over the North & East Atlantic.

Here are the June weather highlights from NOAA:
NOAA: Warm June for U.S. with Wet and Dry Extremes June 2008 was the 27th warmest June for the contiguous United States, based on records dating back to 1895, according to an analysis by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The average June temperature, 70.4 degrees F, was 1.1 degrees above the 20th century mean, based on preliminary data.
U.S. Temperature Highlights
* June temperatures were warmer than average across the southern and eastern states, and cooler than average across the Northwest and northern Plains.

* New Jersey and Rhode Island ranked second warmest and Delaware ranked third warmest, based on statewide data going back to 1895.
Nine states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, and North and South Carolina) were much warmer than average, and 23 were warmer than average.
* Seven states (Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming, and North and South Dakota) were cooler than average.

* Unusually warm June temperatures translated into a higher temperature-related residential energy demand. Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, contiguous U.S.
temperature-related energy demand was approximately 7.5 percent above average in June.

U.S. Precipitation Highlights
* Rainfall patterns across the country in June consisted of both extremely wet and extremely dry conditions. Heavy rain and flooding occurred in the Midwest, while parts of the Southeast, southern Plains, and West were dry.

* Five states (Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Vermont) were much wetter than average for June, with Iowa ranking second wettest on record.
* Persistent heavy rain across the Midwest triggered flooding along the Cedar River in Iowa, and many tributaries to the Mississippi River in eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Flooding also occurred along the Mississippi River in parts of western Illinois and eastern Missouri. By the end of June, 26 percent of the contiguous U.S. was classified in moderate-to-extreme "wet spell" conditions compared to
24 percent a month ago, based on the Palmer Index.

* Over the past six months, Iowa, Ohio, and Missouri had the wettest January-June on record. Iowa had its wettest April-June period on record with an average of 20.4 inches of precipitation - 8.7 inches above average.

* Five states (California, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas) were much drier than average, with California having the fourth driest June on record and North Carolina ranking eighth driest.

* Continued lack of rainfall across much of the Southeast and parts of the southern Plains and West worsened drought conditions.
Twenty-eight percent of the contiguous U.S. was classified in moderate-to-exceptional drought at the end of June, compared to 22 percent a month ago, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Western Wildfires
* By the end of June, many large wildfires were raging in northern California and Arizona, largely due to lightning strikes. As of June 30, more than 2.1 million acres have burned so far this year in the United States, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Already, January - June 2008 ranks third behind the same periods for 2006 and 2002 in the amount of burnt acreage.

Small Circulation... Locally Heavy Rain... E. Coast Early Season Tropical Cyclones... Wind Power

2008-07-08T22:46:00Z

A weak circulation over the extreme Northeast Gulf of Mexico Tue. afternoon -- near the Big Bend -- appears to be a "MCV" -- mesoscale convection voriticity. In simplest terms it's a weak upper level disturbance or small low pressure. The circulation has caused boundaries & moisture to surge northward but mainly inland from the coastal counties (the West side of Jax & points northwest through southwest. The rest of the area -- including the metro area -- will get some rain but amounts should not be great Tue. evening. Rainfall could reach 1-3" & locally more along & south & west of a line from Waycross to Folkston to about I-295 on
Jax's West side to near Palatka & Crescent City.
We should still see a pretty coverage of afternoon storms Wed. but then more widely scattered Thu. & Fri. which means more heat -- low to mid 90s for afternoon highs the next few days.

"Bertha" is following the weakness into the Central Atlantic but steering currents will become especially weak by the weekend which means "Bertha" will probably be moving very slowly & erratically at that point. Ultimately a more westward shift in the track is quite possible given the weak steering & now a more shallow system again...for awhile. But "Bertha" will probably regain some strength in the long run & should eventually get picked up by a stronger trough early next week which would finally take the storm out to sea completing the recurvature & keeping the cylcone well east of the U.S.
Sure...we had "Bertha" hit the U.S. in 1996 but long track East Coast-hitting tropical cyclones in July are not common & even more rare on the First Coast. Check out the graph below supplied by Al Sandrik at the Jax N.W.S. Our threat becomes far greater from mid Aug. into Sept. & early Oct. You can see Al's history of First Coast tropical cyclones by clicking here.

I watched a news report today regarding T. Boone Pickens, the oil businessman -- now interested in building huge wind farms for energy. Click here for the news story from CNN.

Roll Cloud Photo... Waves From "Bertha"... Local Upwelling & Cooler Water

2008-07-07T23:01:00Z

Classic summertime set-up on the First Coast with afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breezes & outflows with some occasional "oomph" from a few upper level disturbances. Check out the photo below from Amanda Seidel of a roll cloud Sat. afternoon near Yulee north of Jax in Nassau Co. Once a roll cloud like this one moves through, the winds pick up & heavy rain usually quickly follows.

The overall pattern will change little this week though we might see a bit of decrease in storms Thu.-Fri. as weak upper level ridging develops over the area causing some warming aloft. We might also see a few showers late at night & in the early morning -- especially close to the coast -- Tue. & Wed. due to a weakening upper low over Florida enhancing our onshore flow a little.

Swells from "Bertha" should start to reach the First Coast by at least Fri. through the weekend -- 3-4 foot seas can be expected so nothing exceptional. Steering currents for "Bertha" will become quite weak by the weekend & "Bertha" could become nearly stationary for a time not far from Bermuda. More at "Talking the Tropics With Mike".

Some upwelling has cooled our coastal waters recently, possibly due to quite a bit of offshore wind recently or winds at least parallel to the coast (southerly). Take a look at the map below from NOAA showing sea surface temps. (the scale is in degrees C, 28 is about 82 degrees F) -- well below avg. from about Brunswick to Daytona to almost Melbourne. These temps. should go back up rather quickly in the coming days & weeks.

Hot, Humid Weekend... Storms... Cumberland Fire... "Bertha"... Global Warming & Wildfires... "Earth Gauge": Beach Debris, Seabird Shift

2008-07-05T01:57:00Z

It'll be a hot, humid weekend with scattered mainly inland afternoon storms Sat. then storms should be more numerous & possibly reaching all the way to the coast Sunday.
So with any luck Cumberland Island in Ga. will get some much needed rain after lightning a couple of weeks ago ignited a large wildfire. Firefighters seem to be gaining an upper hand & allowing residents back in to the north side of the island. The photo below shows firefighters taking on the blaze (doing "fuel reduction burn operations").

We're pretty much settling into a typical midsummer weather pattern for much of the U.S. That'll mean sea breeze-driven storms for the First Coast & finally a break from the wet, stormy weather for the Midwest. The mega clash of warm & cold of the last 6 months has diminished. That doesn't mean no storminess at all but less & generally not as intense or as widespread.

Speaking of storms...."Bertha" continues to move quickly west. Forecast models that were showing an early recurvature (GFS -- a typical bias) are now shifting west while models that were more west all along (EURO) remain more west. So the moral of the story is "Bertha" is not a sure bet to simply recurve.
Still...it'll be well east of the Bahamas & well northeast of Puerto Rico at midweek, but a system to carefully watch! It's interesting to note that the last 2 "Bertha's" did make a U.S. landfall. In 2002, tropical storm "Bertha" made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 4th followed by a second landfall on the Texas Coast Aug. 9th....in 1996, "Bertha" made landfall near Wilmington, NC as a Cat. 2 hurricane on July 12th then moved up the coast to New England as a formidable tropical storm (like our '08 version of "Bertha", the '96 cyclone was also an unseasonably early Cape Verde storm). "Talking the Tropics With Mike" will be updated through the weekend.

On CNN this morning, I heard the headline "Global warming causing more wildfires in the West". So I waited through the commercial break...the guest was interesting -- a photographer from National Geographic that's also a certified wildfire fighter -- Mark Thiessen. Turns out he's been photographing wildfires for a number of yrs. It also turns out during the CNN interview that Thiessen reveals research indicates global warming could be "exasperating the wildfire situation".
But there are clearly a number of forces working together as pointed out by Thiessen & the NG article:
-- the west was settled during "wetter times"
-- much higher population
-- people building in harm's way & not taking fire preventive measures (sounds like our coastlines & the hurricane problem)
-- insects
-- disease (trees)
-- too much "fuel"....up until the last 15-20 yrs. or so, fires were being put out instead of allowed to burn -- at least to some degree. Wildfires are nature's way of cleaning up, restoring & starting new life
Of course, the media -- in this case CNN -- jumps on "global warming causes..."....ya-da', ya-da', ya-da' -- I'm sorry, but the media generally does not understand global warming, does not research the phenomenon, looks for simple yet sensationalistic sound bites & generally presents one side of the story more often than not.
Read the article & look at Thiessen's photos in Nat. Geographic -- click here.

Earth Gauge: Beach Debris
Did you know that trash and debris in the ocean kills more than one million seabirds and 100,000 marine mammals and sea turtles each year? Marine animals may confuse trash for food or become entangled in debris, often resulting in death. This is especially a problem for sea turtles species, six out of seven of which are considered endangered or threatened. Jellyfish are an important food source for sea turtles, but they often mistake plastic bags for their favorite meal. When a sea turtle ingests the plastic bag, it blocks the animal’s digestive track and leads to their death. Marine debris like fishing line can also snag sea turtles underwater, entangling them and causing them to drown.
Tip: Headed to the beach over the July 4th holiday? Help protect sea turtles and other marine animals by properly disposing of your trash - if there aren't public trash cans on the beach, carry your trash out with you to throw it away. You might also consider taking some time during your beach vacation to help clean up your local beach or coastline. A beach free of debris and litter is not only safer for local animals, but creates a more pristine environment for you and your family to enjoy during the beautiful summer weather!

This information was provided through a partnership with The Ocean Conservancy. Learn more at here.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Fact: Seabird Shift
Climate variability in the mid- to high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, or the area from about 35 degrees North to the poles, is largely controlled by two naturally occurring climate oscillations, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In 1977, both oscillations shifted from negative to positive phases, which resulted in a warming of the ocean waters in the northeastern Pacific around Alaska, and a cooling of the waters in the northeastern Atlantic around Scandinavia. This shift in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was one of the largest ever recorded. In 1989, the opposite trend happened. The magnitude of this shift, however, was much less pronounced. The population trends of two species of seabird, the Common Murre and the Thick-billed Murre, were studied in relation to these shifts. These species thrive under essentially the opposite environmental conditions. The large magnitude shift in 1977 caused populations of both species to decline throughout the entire hemisphere, while both populations grew after the smaller shift in 1989. Because these shifts produced opposite trends in local environmental conditions, it might be expected that one species would thrive and one species would decline in number during each of the regime shifts. Since this was not the case, this phenomenon illustrates how it can be difficult for top predatory species to adapt to any rapid climatic fluctuation.
(Source: Irons, D.B. et al. “Fluctuations in circumpolar seabird populations linked to climate oscillations.” Global Change Biology 14 (2008): 1455-1463. )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Have a great / safe weekend!

4th of July... Fireworks

2008-07-04T01:44:00Z

Our 4th of July will feature typical weather conditions for the First Coast: hot & humid with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Afternoon temps. will soar to near 90 degrees, but it'll be in the low to mid 80s at the beaches by late afternoon thanks to the sea breeze.
Tropical moisture will continue to increase through the weekend & afternoon/evening storms will increase accordingly. Not a washout, but there will be storms that produce some very heavy rainfall.

For fireworks Fri. evening...it'll help that most displays will not begin until at least 9:30pm. Showers & storms should peak between 4 & 8pm then wind down leaving most areas "fireworks-eligible" by later in the evening.
Ever wonder about fireworks & our environment? I found this (7 yrs. old but still pertinent)from ABC's "News in Science".

Tropics... Moisture... Fl. Cat Fund "Insurance"... "Dog Days"... First Coast on Google Maps

2008-07-02T22:49:00Z

The tropics are awakening -- something touched on last week. The E. Pacific has two named storms -- "Boris" & "Douglas" with another soon to follow just off the coast of Central America. In the Atlantic Basin, a strong tropical wave is in the far Eastern Atlantic south/southeast of the Cape Verde Islands just off the coast of Africa. This should become "Bertha" -- the 2nd named storm of the season for the Atlantic Basin (remember the Pacific list of names is different than the Atlantic Basin). Initial conditions are favorable for development over the E. Atlantic but become increasingly hostile farther west across the Atlantic -- mainly higher shear. Chances for "Bertha" to make it all the way across the Atlantic are slim (though not zero!), but -- as mentioned back in June when a string of early season waves was coming off Africa -- this early season activity could be an indication of what's ahead as we get deeper into the season (a "healthy" Cape Verde season).

We also need to watch the Gulf of Mexico & Southwest Atlantic as "upward motion" (indicative of all the activity in the E. Pacific) heads eastward. A weak trough (old front) over the Northern Gulf can sometimes develop low pressure that could eventually become tropical.

Otherwise....a surge of tropical moisture will be spreading north the next few days & thunderstorms will increase accordingly from south to north Thu. & especially on the 4th through the weekend.

Our governor & cabinet passed a measure that will "insure" the state's catastrophe fund (which -- along with property insurance -- has become a catastrophe in itself). The expenses will eventually be paid by all of us -- tax payers (so you say no state income tax puts more money in our pockets??!!)This from the Orlando Sentinel "Political Pulse":

Crist pushes through deal to give Buffett $224 million for hurricane help
posted by Aaron Deslatte on Jul 2, 2008 12:37:40 PM

Gov. Charlie Crist and the Cabinet voted Wednesday to pay Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate $224 million in exchange for a pledge to provide $4 billion in cash if Florida has a devastating hurricane season this year.

But the deal favored by Crist was roundly criticized by the two other trustees on the State Board of Administration, Attorney General Bill McCollum and Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who called it a steal for the billionaire Nebraska investor.

“This is not a good deal,” said McCollum, who questioned why the state needed to buy the extra hurricane protection when the chance of a serious enough storm hitting Florida this year was about 3 percent.

“Berkshire Hathaway will wind up pocketing the money,” he said.

Sink, a Democrat, chided the GOP-led Legislature for passing on her plan last spring to reduce the size of the Cat Fund, along with her fellow trustees for not taking any longer-term steps to reduce Florida’s hurricane exposure.

“The truth of it is we’re kind of sitting here paying part of the price for the Legislature’s inaction,” she said. “I am not going to sit here next July 1 and be held hostage by just one provider.”

Because of the 2007 reforms meant to lower premiums to homeowners, the state’s hurricane catastrophe fund could have to pay out as much a $29 billion to reimburse insurers for claims this year, if a Katrina-sized hurricane struck the most densely populated regions of the state.

Because the Cat Fund only has about $8 billion in cash at its disposal, the state would have to sell bonds after a storm to raise the rest, and there’s no certainty that battered financial markets would be able to buy as much as $20 billion.

Enter Buffett.

For the $224 million taken from Cat Fund reserves (which would be repaid by consumers eventually), his investment conglomerate would pledge to buy $4 billion in bonds after a serious enough hurricane strike – at roughly 6.5 percent interest (which would also be paid be ratepayers).

So Berkshire Hathaway pockets the $224 million and would draw 6.5 percent interest on the bonds in the unlikely event that it has to buy them.

“No wonder Warren Buffett wants it. Who wouldn’t want a 6.5 percent tax-free investment?” Sink said afterward.

The Cabinet members also differed on whether the $224 million being spent would have to be passed immediately along to consumers. SBA acting director Bob Milligan said since it was an expense, insurers that buy backup coverage from the state are allowed by law to factor it into their premiums.

“There are no free lunches,” he said after the meeting.

But Crist disagreed, and cast the lone vote against a measure allowing the agency to start that process.

“We’ve already got the money in the bank. We’ll spend it. The taxpayers have already given that money,” Crist said after the vote.

However, it wasn’t clear after the morning meeting who won the vote. The Attorney General’s office thought the motion would require a unanimous vote of all three trustees – in which case, it would have failed – while Sink’s office said it only took two votes, in which the pass-through of the cost to policyholders would have passed.

The "Dog Days" of summer are here. From the Farmer's Almanac:
The Dog Days (a period of 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11) are named for the Dog Star, Sirius, which is visible with the rising Sun at this time of year. Ancients associated this sky picture with the hot days that coincided with it. Sirius is the brightest star in the constellation Canis Major (Greater Dog).

Dog Days bright and clear,
indicate a happy year.
But when accompanied by rain,
for better times our hopes are in vain.

Google maps now has metro Jacksonville & most of the viewing area plotted with "street view". Pretty cool & pretty handy (though maybe a little spooky!) -- click here to check it out...here to read the story on Jacksonville.com.