A weak circulation over the extreme Northeast Gulf of Mexico Tue. afternoon -- near the Big Bend -- appears to be a "MCV" -- mesoscale convection voriticity. In simplest terms it's a weak upper level disturbance or small low pressure. The circulation has caused boundaries & moisture to surge northward but mainly inland from the coastal counties (the West side of Jax & points northwest through southwest. The rest of the area -- including the metro area -- will get some rain but amounts should not be great Tue. evening. Rainfall could reach 1-3" & locally more along & south & west of a line from Waycross to Folkston to about I-295 on
Jax's West side to near Palatka & Crescent City.
We should still see a pretty coverage of afternoon storms Wed. but then more widely scattered Thu. & Fri. which means more heat -- low to mid 90s for afternoon highs the next few days.
"Bertha" is following the weakness into the Central Atlantic but steering currents will become especially weak by the weekend which means "Bertha" will probably be moving very slowly & erratically at that point. Ultimately a more westward shift in the track is quite possible given the weak steering & now a more shallow system again...for awhile. But "Bertha" will probably regain some strength in the long run & should eventually get picked up by a stronger trough early next week which would finally take the storm out to sea completing the recurvature & keeping the cylcone well east of the U.S.
Sure...we had "Bertha" hit the U.S. in 1996 but long track East Coast-hitting tropical cyclones in July are not common & even more rare on the First Coast. Check out the graph below supplied by Al Sandrik at the Jax N.W.S. Our threat becomes far greater from mid Aug. into Sept. & early Oct. You can see Al's history of First Coast tropical cyclones by clicking here.
I watched a news report today regarding T. Boone Pickens, the oil businessman -- now interested in building huge wind farms for energy. Click here for the news story from CNN.
