Classic summertime set-up on the First Coast with afternoon thunderstorms driven by sea breezes & outflows with some occasional "oomph" from a few upper level disturbances. Check out the photo below from Amanda Seidel of a roll cloud Sat. afternoon near Yulee north of Jax in Nassau Co. Once a roll cloud like this one moves through, the winds pick up & heavy rain usually quickly follows.
The overall pattern will change little this week though we might see a bit of decrease in storms Thu.-Fri. as weak upper level ridging develops over the area causing some warming aloft. We might also see a few showers late at night & in the early morning -- especially close to the coast -- Tue. & Wed. due to a weakening upper low over Florida enhancing our onshore flow a little.
Swells from "Bertha" should start to reach the First Coast by at least Fri. through the weekend -- 3-4 foot seas can be expected so nothing exceptional. Steering currents for "Bertha" will become quite weak by the weekend & "Bertha" could become nearly stationary for a time not far from Bermuda. More at "Talking the Tropics With Mike".
Some upwelling has cooled our coastal waters recently, possibly due to quite a bit of offshore wind recently or winds at least parallel to the coast (southerly). Take a look at the map below from NOAA showing sea surface temps. (the scale is in degrees C, 28 is about 82 degrees F) -- well below avg. from about Brunswick to Daytona to almost Melbourne. These temps. should go back up rather quickly in the coming days & weeks.
