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Buresh Blog

Tropics... Moisture... Fl. Cat Fund "Insurance"... "Dog Days"... First Coast on Google Maps

The tropics are awakening -- something touched on last week.  The E. Pacific has two named storms -- "Boris" & "Douglas" with another soon to follow just off the coast of Central America.  In the Atlantic Basin, a strong tropical wave is in the far Eastern Atlantic south/southeast of the Cape Verde Islands just off the coast of Africa.  This should become "Bertha" -- the 2nd named storm of the season for the Atlantic Basin (remember the Pacific list of names is different than the Atlantic Basin).  Initial conditions are favorable for development over the E. Atlantic but become increasingly hostile farther west across the Atlantic -- mainly higher shear.  Chances for "Bertha" to make it all the way across the Atlantic are slim (though not zero!), but -- as mentioned back in June when a string of early season waves was coming off Africa -- this early season activity could be an indication of what's ahead as we get deeper into the season (a "healthy" Cape Verde season). 

We also need to watch the Gulf of Mexico & Southwest Atlantic as "upward motion" (indicative of all the activity in the E. Pacific) heads eastward.  A weak trough (old front) over the Northern Gulf can sometimes develop low pressure that could eventually become tropical.

Otherwise....a surge of tropical moisture will be spreading north the next few days & thunderstorms will  increase accordingly from south to north Thu. & especially on the 4th through the weekend.

Our governor & cabinet passed a measure that will "insure" the state's catastrophe fund (which -- along with property insurance -- has become a catastrophe in itself).  The expenses will eventually be paid by all of us -- tax payers (so you say no state income tax puts more money in our pockets??!!)This from the Orlando Sentinel "Political Pulse":

Crist pushes through deal to give Buffett $224 million for hurricane help

Gov. Charlie Crist and the Cabinet voted Wednesday to pay Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate $224 million in exchange for a pledge to provide $4 billion in cash if Florida has a devastating hurricane season this year.

But the deal favored by Crist was roundly criticized by the two other trustees on the State Board of Administration, Attorney General Bill McCollum and Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who called it a steal for the billionaire Nebraska investor.

“This is not a good deal,” said McCollum, who questioned why the state needed to buy the extra hurricane protection when the chance of a serious enough storm hitting Florida this year was about 3 percent.

“Berkshire Hathaway will wind up pocketing the money,” he said.

Sink, a Democrat, chided the GOP-led Legislature for passing on her plan last spring to reduce the size of the Cat Fund, along with her fellow trustees for not taking any longer-term steps to reduce Florida’s hurricane exposure.

“The truth of it is we’re kind of sitting here paying part of the price for the Legislature’s inaction,” she said. “I am not going to sit here next July 1 and be held hostage by just one provider.”

Because of the 2007 reforms meant to lower premiums to homeowners, the state’s hurricane catastrophe fund could have to pay out as much a $29 billion to reimburse insurers for claims this year, if a Katrina-sized hurricane struck the most densely populated regions of the state.

Because the Cat Fund only has about $8 billion in cash at its disposal, the state would have to sell bonds after a storm to raise the rest, and there’s no certainty that battered financial markets would be able to buy as much as $20 billion.

Enter Buffett.

For the $224 million taken from Cat Fund reserves (which would be repaid by consumers eventually), his investment conglomerate would pledge to buy $4 billion in bonds after a serious enough hurricane strike – at roughly 6.5 percent interest (which would also be paid be ratepayers).

So Berkshire Hathaway pockets the $224 million and would draw 6.5 percent interest on the bonds in the unlikely event that it has to buy them.

“No wonder Warren Buffett wants it. Who wouldn’t want a 6.5 percent tax-free investment?” Sink said afterward.

The Cabinet members also differed on whether the $224 million being spent would have to be passed immediately along to consumers. SBA acting director Bob Milligan said since it was an expense, insurers that buy backup coverage from the state are allowed by law to factor it into their premiums.

“There are no free lunches,” he said after the meeting.

But Crist disagreed, and cast the lone vote against a measure allowing the agency to start that process.

“We’ve already got the money in the bank. We’ll spend it. The taxpayers have already given that money,” Crist said after the vote.

However, it wasn’t clear after the morning meeting who won the vote. The Attorney General’s office thought the motion would require a unanimous vote of all three trustees – in which case, it would have failed – while Sink’s office said it only took two votes, in which the pass-through of the cost to policyholders would have passed.

The "Dog Days" of summer are here.  From the Farmer's Almanac:
The Dog Days (a period of 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11) are named for the Dog Star, Sirius, which is visible with the rising Sun at this time of year. Ancients associated this sky picture with the hot days that coincided with it. Sirius is the brightest star in the constellation Canis Major (Greater Dog).

Dog Days bright and clear,
indicate a happy year.
But when accompanied by rain,
for better times our hopes are in vain.

Google maps now has metro Jacksonville & most of the viewing area plotted with "street view".  Pretty cool & pretty handy (though maybe a little spooky!) -- click here to check it out...here to read the story on Jacksonville.com.

Published Wednesday, July 02, 2008 5:49 PM by mburesh

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