Quiet weather the next few days before some subtle but potentially significant changes by the end of the week & weekend. A pretty cut-&-dry forecast through Wed. with a dry northeast wind & inland afternoon temps. in the 80s but only upper 70s before falling off some at the beaches. Winds will begin to become more southeast by late Wed. & Thu. then more southerly as a weak front approaches from the north. This is where the forecast becomes a bit more problematic. It looks like we'll have enough atmospheric moisture by Thu. & especially Fri. through the weekend for at least a few afternoon thunderstorms near the sea breeze.
Complicating this forecast will be the weak front to the north which looks like it'll stall just north of the First Coast. Little upper level disturbances will move along the front & trigger clusters of showers & thunderstorms. Depending on the exact location of the front, some of these thunderstorm complexes could affect parts of the First Coast. The most favored locations for rain will be northern parts of the viewing area as it looks right now but a major caveat could be:
(1) outflow boundaries from the storms to the north which could develop storms farther to the south
(2) sea breeze development...winds will generally be offshore (from the west/southwest) so sea breeze penetration should not be very far inland.
Otherwise it'll be hot & humid Thu. through the weekend with the potential for some of the hottest temps. we've experienced in months.
So here's how it shakes out for "The Players" (highly dependent on the location of the front):
Thursday: Partly sunny. Wind: SW - 10 mph becoming SE late in the day. 8am: 65....Noon: 83...5pm: 81
Friday: Partly sunny with a brief midday or afternoon t'storm possible. Wind: SW 10-15 mph. 8am: 67....Noon: 85...5pm: 83
Saturday: Partly sunny with an afternoon/evening t'storm. Wind: SW 10-15 mph. 8am: 68...Noon: 86...5pm: 84
Sunday: Partly sunny with an afternoon/evening t'storm. Wind: W/SW 10-15 mph. 8am: 68...Noon: 85...5pm: 82
Check back for updates on this forecast!
An intense tropical cyclone (hurricane in our neck of the woods) slammed Southeast Asia Sat. The high end Cat. 4 came out of the ever dangerous Bay of Bengal & was very well forecast, but the area hit -- Myanmar which is sandwiched between India, China & Thailand -- does not have the kind of warning system nor the infrastructure or housing that will stand up very well to such a powerful storm. Estimates are that 10,000 people could be dead, thousands are still missing. The Bay of Bengal is notorious for powerful tropical cyclones though May is just the beginning of the Bay of Bengal cyclone season which runs May-Nov. peaking in Oct., Nov.
My cousin sent me some photos from last Monday's (April 29th) EF-3 tornado damage in Suffolk, VA. The photos were taken by my cousin's father-in-law who lives near Suffolk. The last photo is a newly constructed stip mall that's demolished. The other 2 photos illustrate why meteorologists emphasize to never get in a car if a tornado is approaching or try to get out of your vehicle if a tornado is approaching.
