Alright...our next storm is just around the corner. A nice rain from the last system with just about the entire area receiving at least 1-2" late Thu. through early Sat. with some areas -- parts of Ga. & extreme North Fl. in particular -- soaked by 3-6"! JIA had a 3-day total of 3.14" which is just about the Feb. avg. of 3.15"!
This next storm will be a fast-mover so although there will be downpours, they'll come & go pretty quickly. I'm thinking avg. rainfall will be a third to three-quarters of an inch with a few spots managing an inch to maybe 1.5". But rainfall will not be the story...it's the risk of severe storms followed by an unseasonably chilly airmass. First, the former:
-- as of late Mon. afternoon, atmospheric moisture is seriously lacking over North Fl./South Ga. But higher dew points are not far away -- generally near & south I-4...most of the Gulf of Mexico...& a "nose" of moisture extends into Louisiana & Mississippi.
-- low pressure over Missouri will move southeast Mon. evening & rapidly strengthen as it turns east then east/northeast near the Ohio River then to Southern New England. Strong southwest winds will easily pull the moisture northward across the First Coast.
-- strong thunderstorms should be ongoing early in the day in Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, parts of the Fl. Panhandle & Western Ga. The day begins with plenty of sun on the First Coast.
-- it appears the main line of storms will reach areas north & west of Jax later in the afternoon -- maybe somewhere between 2 & 5pm then work its way eastward as a squall line quickly exiting to the south & east off the coast between 7 & 10pm or so. It looks like the primary threats will be strong, locally damaging winds....hail, lightning & brief but intense downpours. While there's plenty of wind -- both at the surface & aloft -- it's mostly from nearly one direction (unidirectional) which is not generally favorable for tornadoes. However, any severe storm is capable of suddenly producing tornadoes, & we could see a few isolated, brief tornadoes develop along bow echoes and/or near any small scale circulations/low pressures that might develop.
Now, the latter:
-- some of the coldest air of the winter will drop southward behind the storm. Temperatures Wed. will only make into the 50s with a strong northwest wind...lows early Thu. will drop into the 20s inland & the low to mid 30s at the beaches & near other waterways. We'll be close to some of the coldest temps. we've seen this season & within a few degrees of daily records. And since this is a leap yr. & there's 29 days in Feb., Fri. we'll be close to records lows too (32 @ JIA) [not as low as days either side since there's a quarter of the usual sampling].
Finally! Some good news regarding Florida insurance, & it comes from AAA South. I figured it would be just a matter of time before someone "smarted up" & decided to take advantage of the insurance companies abandoning Fl. & simply trying to cushion their coffers all the while ignoring the needs of consumers. There's room in Fl. -- & other coastal markets -- for insurance companies to make money AND for consumers to be able to protect their assets & have some sense of security. Hooray to AAA South. The homeowner's insurance is not yet being offered for all of Florida (not available from roughly I-4 south), but it's a start. And I bet ya' it's just a matter of time before other companies decide to return. Competition -- & with any luck no major landfalling storm -- could get insurance rates back to something more affordable not to mention available to everyone that needs insurance. Click here for a summation of the story by our reporter Amy Tortolani which includes local contact info.
Our morning meteorologist, Jamie Warriner, forwarded an Assoc. Press story to me about a dog in Arkansas lost after a tornado only to find his way home recently -- some 2+ weeks afterwards! Click here for the "doggy details".
Hey! This just in....you can get sunburnt this time of year. I spent a lot of time outside in our beautiful weather over the weekend & -- without thinking much about it -- caught some "rays". I know, I know -- the weatherman ought to know these things, but for a lifelong "northerner" prior to moving to Jax -- it's still easy to forget when it's "only" Feb. So apply your sunscreen!
What a great weekend, what with the weather & all. I took my daughters to the zoo Sat. afternoon. It was a "big adventure"...listening to the play "Lion King" on the CD on the way...& straight to the member's preview of Stingray Bay -- what an awesome exhibit! (more on that later this week). The animals were in rare form -- cooler, sunny & nice...& we topped off the afternoon with a "snow biz" -- this is a souped-up snow cone for which there is no rival -- shaved ice that melts in your mouth with just about any flavor you can imagine. 4 hours later we were headed home jamming to "The Lion King" & talking about going to the Broadway play again the next time it's anywhere close to Jax.
This morning my wife & I went to Panera -- Orange Park -- as we were running some errands nearby. It's one of the cleanest such establishments in the area, & I went so far as to compliment the manager who happened to be waiting on us. When we got up to leave, we tried to dispose of our trash & utensils but unlike most other Panera's, this one was no "clean up after yourself". Makes me think -- with no surprise -- that the ol' buddy system just won't work these days in America. People just won't take the personal responsibility to clean up after themselves, to care much at all beyond their own "space"...it's too bad.
