Another cold night tonight with upper 20s to low 30s by early Fri. morning along the I-95 corridor & areas west. Winds will become onshore by morning keeping beaches & the intracoastal well above freezing. Areas of dense fog will develop too. Otherwise, we're in for a couple of beautiful days -- Fri. & Sat.
But the big storm is still on the docket for Sun.-Mon. Here's the deal:
-- there will be a large, significant storm.
-- the track is still somewhat up in the air but is looking more & more like the center will go west of the Appalachians tracking from Oklahama to Michigan.
-- severe storms -- including tornadoes -- will break out from Texas east to Ga. & the Carolinas north to at least parts of the Tennessee Valley & maybe even farther north.
-- heavy snow & ice will fall on the west side of the classic winter storm from Northeast Ok. to parts of Michigan with Chicago once again taking a hard hit.
-- For the First Coast: a windy, warm Sun. with afternoon temps. 80+ with a few isolated showers or thundershower possible. A line of showers & heavy thunderstorms will move across the First Coast later Sun. night into early Mon. The timing would suggest our instability will be lower BUT not nonexistant. Plus the system will be a very dynamic one so it's possible that strong storms -- maybe in the form of a squall line -- will still manage to move through parts or even all of the First Coast. More Fri. & into the weekend if necessary.....
Today's forecast in the morning T-U for Sun: "Partly cloudy, showers likely, rain chance: 40%". Say what??!! If you know me very well or read this column very often, you know how I feel about using %'s to forecast the weather. This is a classic example. Ya' can't have it both ways. Looking at that forecast, how do you prepare for the day? And the forecast has a good chance to be right 'cause it's wishy-washy.
I just read an interesting editorial in "Broadcasting & Cable" (Feb. 11, 2008) -- "TV News: Endangered Species?". It comes down to style vs. substance. It's my
opinion that t.v. news -- local & national in some instances -- is big on style but woefully short on substance. I've always argued -- & always will -- that a good story with
good information & told in an interesting manner will not only maintain -- but more importantly -- build audience share. As for my job -- forecasting the weather -- the bottom line is people want to know what to expect at their house or place of work or on the roads or how the weather is going to affect their plans on any given day...& -- once in a great while -- when will the weather be potentially hazardous or even deadly. A bunch of pizzaz & percentages just simply never beats a straight-forward, understandable forecast -- & accuracy, of course, goes a long way too (with the understanding that not every forecast will be a perfect forecast!). One of my favorite paragraphs from the editorial that's right on in my opinion:
"The next endangered species may be television newscasts, which have some of the same problems. If newspapers are too slow, the network newscasts are in trouble because they're on when viewers can't reach them. Most network magazine shows, and morning newscasts, are now more like People than Newsweek or Time. Many local newscasts are in trouble because their cookie-cutter Action Eyewitness Newscenter formats are parodies of news, not purveyors of it. Alas, cable news, on its worst days, is just a dogfight between “celebrity” ideological egotists."
Click here to read the full editorial.
Happy Valentine's Day! A couple things to note: Dan Fogelberg died a couple of months ago from advanced prostate cancer. Quite a tribute from his wife, Jean, is now posted on the Prostate Cancer Foundation website.
You can download a song Dan wrote for his wife & delivered to her on V'tines Day, 2005. All proceeds go to the Prostate Cancer Foundation............
Nice article in Wed's. Times-Union from one of their best columnists, Mark Woods -- "A Valentine's Day Tradition That is Theirs Alone". It's about a local couple
married 75 years. I like the theory & their approach to Valentine's Day. Read the column by clicking here.
From "Earth Gauge":
National Audubon Society and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology Host the Great Backyard Bird Count - February 15-18, 2008.
In its eleventh year, the Great Backyard Bird Count is an opportunity for "citizen scientists" to head outside to count birds in their backyard, a local park, or nature area. Bird-counters report their data to a website, which is used to create a "snapshot" of where birds are during the counting period. The data can help scientists answer questions about species diversity in rural versus urban areas, identify bird species that may be in decline, and make comparisons between current and past years' results. Last year, more than 613 species and 11 million birds were counted, and citizens submitted over 81,000 checklists. Visit here for directions and regional checklists, then get counting!
Winter Bird Feeding Helps Spring Breeding - Nature News, February 6, 2008
While it was previously thought that supplemental foods from bird feeders only temporarily benefited feathered friends by helping them through food shortages, researchers in the UK have now found that providing food for birds has long-term effects. Scientists at the University of Exeter found that birds with access to feeders with peanuts from November to March laid their eggs about 2.5 days earlier than birds without supplemental food. Birds that were fed supplemental peanuts also had an average of one additional chick survive to maturity.
Collectively, US and UK residents provide more than half a million tonnes (more than 1.1 billion pounds) of food to backyard birds each year. This is a great time to add a bird feeder to your yard - the benefits of feeding will last well into Spring!
