Severe weather situation continues to evolve for the First Coast. A tornado WATCH was issued late Tue. afternoon from Jacksonville southward but the entire area is at risk for at least a few severe storms. An initial line of showers & thunderstorms with heavy rain will move northward through early this evening with a few isolated storms out ahead -- to the north -- of this band. While an isolated storm could produce some hail, the overall severe threat with this line appears low early on. Coastal areas will have to be watched for waterspouts (a storm near Cape Canaveral about 3pm did cause some damage to buildings along with considerable hail). This band of storms is on the leading edge of some much more humid air.
It appears our greatest severe storm & tornado risk will be later this evening & overnight as a fairly strong upper level disturbance approaches the First Coast. Winds aloft are strong -- 30-50 mph -- & change direction with height...which is referred to as shear. Such strong shear can lead to thunderstorms that literally rotate which can lead to tornadoes & large hail. It would appear the greatest threat is along & south of the Fl./Ga. border, but I can't rule out severe storms & an isolated tornado in Southeast Ga. This situation is at least somewhat similar to the Feb. 2 outbreak last year in Central Fl. Now please don't jump to the conclusion that this will be a terrible night with a swarm of tornadoes but prudence would be a wise approach. Nighttime tornadoes are often times the most dangerous because the twisters are hard to see &, of course, people sleeping cannot hear warnings. If you have a NOAA weather radio, have the alarm mode "on" & keep CBS47/FOX30 on your
t.v. as I'll break if & when necessary.
The cold front will not move through the area until Wed. afternoon so showers & a few thunderstorms will continue into early Wed. afternoon. While a few strong wind gusts or some hail will be possible with a few of these storms, it appears the primary & potentially most dangerous severe weather set-up is overnight tonight.
One good aspect out of all this is as that the entire area will receive rain with avg. rainfall of a half inch to an inch with local spots picking up 1-2".
I'll try to update this column later again if time allows & the weather warrants such.
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