An active week of weather ahead. 2 significant storms will impact the First Coast & much of the Eastern half of the U.S. during the next 7 days.
Storm #1 will move across the area Tue. night into Wed. There's the potential for severe storms but just how strong & how widespread will depend on "airmass recovery" -- how much deep moisture spreads up across the First Coast, in other words. Tue. will be mostly dry but high clouds will be overhead by sunrise with thickening clouds through the day. A warm front -- with humid conditions to its south -- will be near Lake Okeechobee early & will steadily move north reaching approximately a line from north of Tampa to near Ocala to Flagler Beach or so by early evening. It's along & north of this warm front where showers & a few thunderstorms should break out late in the day reaching the First Coast in the evening (possibly Palatka & St. Augustine late in the afternoon). Storms well north of the warm front will have the potential to produce hail & maybe gusty winds. Storms close to -- or on -- the warm front will have the potential to produce isolated tornadoes. During the day Wed. a cold front will move through the area from west to east producing more showers & thunderstorms. A few of these storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds & hail though the front's timing (relatively early in the day) might preclude strong storms from becoming widespread.
Rainfall coverage should be 100% Tue. night-Wed. but amounts don't look excessive due to the fast movement of the system. I'm thinking avg. rainfall will be a quarter to three-quarters of an inch with a few local spots managing 1"+. On the "cold side" of this storm, by the way, lots of snow & ice will occur in the midwest, Ohio Valley & into interior New England -- Des Moines, St. Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland & Buffalo will all be impacted.
We'll then have a couple of nice & quiet days Thu. & Fri. before the next storm takes shape & takes a similar path to Tue.-Wed.'s storm though storm #2 might be a stronger system. Low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Appalachians swinging a warm front north through the area with some showers, possible storms Sat. then a period of warmth followed by a cold front with showers & storms Sun. The exact details of this second storm remain questionable as long range forecast models have been jumping around quite a bit. There will be a storm system but the intensity & especially track are up in the air. It would appear at this point that the First Coast will be firmly enough in the warm sector later Sat. night into Sun. to allow for a pretty lengthy period of warm & breezy conditions followed by the storms closer to the front. This has huge implications on the Daytona 500. Right now it looks to be partly sunny & breezy with temps. 75-80 & the chance for a shower or t'storm -- especially later in the race (begins at 3:30pm). But -- again -- all hinges on just how this storm moves & develops, so there will be the potential (& probably likelihood) for a changing forecast regarding this weekend.
And oh how we need some rain! JIA has officially had less than 1" of rain (0.81") so far this year but more telling -- nearly 2 feet (23.83") below average going back to Jan. 1, 2006!
An interesting story in Mon. morning's T-U "First Business" regarding wind power. A group here on the First Coast -- from Fernandina Beach -- is hoping to make wind power a feasible alternative for powering homes, businesses, etc. Read the story here.
