A major winter storm will pound the middle U.S. from Colorado to Iowa to the Great Lakes including Denver, Kansas City, Des Moines, Minneapolis & Chicago. Major airport delays are likely & there could very well be a "ripple effect" that impacts much of the Eastern U.S. This storm will also produce some ice & snow in the Northeast though to a lesser degree. Click here for info. from the N.W.S.
This storm will help to warm up the First Coast but not before a relatively cool Sat. with onshore flow & particularly cool temps. at the beaches. But winds will become more southerly Sun. pushing temps. well into the 70s in the afternoon & maybe even a few low 80s well inland. Unfortunately the cold front that will move through the area Mon. (thanks to the big midwest winter storm) will be void of significant rainfall. We'll have some showers but amounts will average less than a quarter of an inch -- probably less than a tenth of an inch for most places. Even in the areas that had huge rains in Sept.-early Oct., it's again becoming dry with retention ponds back below avg.
The 2007 hurricane season is history. On the surface -- & according to many media reports & "spin experts" -- the season was an "under-achiever" or hyped, depending on who you talk to. Look -- this isn't difficult. Surely a seasonal forecast isn't taken as gospel?! Even a small fraction of common sense dictates that seasonal forecasts should be taken for what they are -- a very general forecast of general patterns. In this year's case, an above avg. tropical cyclone season which it was. The number of hurricanes & intense hurricanes was over-forecast. If the 2 cat. 5 hurricanes make landfall on or near U.S. soil, it would have been a historic & catastrophic year. Just like 1992 -- an extremely "quiet" year when it comes to numbers (& during an El Nino -- usually lower # pattern), but the year will always be remembered for a catastrophe -- "Andrew". In the end, it all comes down to where storms hit or don't hit (see May 22 blog entry). Obviously one of the problems is how the news media treats these seasonal forecasts. Personally, I take & took great pains to give insight on these forecasts & to avoid hysteria. I'm beginning to wonder if I should even bother showing/discussing seasonal forecasts. There is a certain amount of value but only if taken in the proper context -- pretty simply that comes down to will it be a "more active" or "less active" season. It is worth noting that the global tropical cyclone numbers were far below avg. particularly in the East Pacific. Now why isn't the media jumping on the fact that world-wide tropical cyclone activity is down??? Which has generally been true -- more years than not -- since 1995.
Nonetheless, here's a preliminary seasonal summation:
14 named storms…#1: “Andrea” named on May 9th (8th earliest Atlantic Basin cyclone & 1st May cyclone since 1981….#14: “Noel” named on Oct. 28th
2 Cat. 5 hurricanes made landfall – FIRST time for 2 landfalling Cat. 5’s in the same season…& first time on record the first 2 hurricanes of the season became Cat. 5
4 named storms hit the U.S.:
(1) T.S. “Barry”, June 2 – Tampa….known as “fire extinguisher” as the 2-6” rains over the viewing area put out – or at least seriously dampened – wildfires that had been going for nearly 2 months.
(2) T.S. “Erin” on the upper Texas Coast on Aug. 16 – 18 dead (due to inland freshwater flooding).
(3) T.S. “Gabrielle” at Cape Lookout, NC on Sept. 9
(4) Hurricane “Humberto” – High Island, TX on Sept. 13th – 1 dead….in just 19 hours went from a tropical depression to hurricane (approx. 3rd fastest on record – “Celia”, 1970 & “Arlene”/”Flora”, 1963)
Most deadly storm: “Noel” when it was a tropical storm as it hit Hispaniola killing at least 120 in flooding & mudslides. It's possible -- or actually likely -- that "Felix" will go down as the most deadliest once the final analysis is completed.
Season was known for fast growing storms – “Humberto” – T.D. to hurricane in 19 hours…”Felix” from T.D. to Cat. 5 in 51 hours (2nd fastest behind “Ethel”, 1960)…”Lorenzo” – from being named to hurricane in just 12 hours.
GRAY FORECAST… NOAA FORECAST… REALITY… AVERAGE
Named Storms 17 13 – 16 14 10
Hurricanes 7 7 – 9 6 6
Intense Hurricanes 3 3 – 5 2 2
December is here ....monthly averages for Jax Int'l. Airport:
1st 31st
Low/High 47 / 69 42 / 64
Rainfall: 2.64"
Sunrise/Sunset 7:05am / 5:26pm 7:23am / 5:36pm............... 8 min. less daylight.
"Earth Gauge": Don’t Feed the Fowl
Many people are inclined to feed Florida’s resident and migratory water birds, including pelicans, ducks, geese, and others. Not only are human foods bad for these birds, but feeding them has many environmental consequences. Feeding waterfowl can cause them to congregate large flocks in small areas, where they can overgraze, degrade the landscape, and cause unsanitary conditions. During rainstorms, bird droppings can wash into our rivers, streams, and the ocean, where just one dropping can contaminate up to 10,000 gallons of water!
Tip: Please don’t feed water birds. These birds have excellent survival skills and good instincts for finding food and handling varied weather conditions. Enjoy the beauty of waterfowl, but leave their diet up to them.
(Sources: University of Florida Extension. “Why Shouldn’t We Feed Water Birds?” http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/UW193)
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Climate Fact: Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Leaf Drop
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have risen from about 280 parts per million in pre-industrial times to around 390 parts per million today. During winter in temperate deciduous forests, the days are too cold and short for trees to efficiently make food, and as a result, the trees are dormant during this time of year. During autumn, trees prepare for winter by halting the production of chlorophyll, or the green chemical that plants use to produce food. When they do this, the yellows and oranges that have been hidden in the leaves all along become visible, and in some species, leftover sugars cause the leaves to turn red. According to recent experiments that grew three species of North American deciduous trees in CO2 enriched environments, the more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the later in the year trees lose their green color.
(Source: Karnosky, DF et al. “Rising atmospheric CO2 explains 26–52% of the recent delay in autumnal senescence in important forest and crop species.” Plants and Environment Lab: University of Southampton (2007))
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Have a great & safe weekend.......I'm not back until Tue.(!)...............
