Coldest low temps. since April 8th tonight with Thursday's morning lows in the 30s inland to the 40s at the beaches..........
Jax Int'l Airport: 37 (but closer to 40 or even a little higher near & south of the St. Johns River)
Jax Beach: 42
Waycross: 34
Nahunta: 34
Blackshear: 34
Fargo: 35
Folkston: 35
Woodbine: 35
Kingsland: 36
Brunswick: 42
St. Marys: 36
Lake City: 35
Raiford: 35
Macclenny: 35
Callahan: 36
Yulee: 37
Ponte Vedra: 43
St. Augustine: 44
World Golf Village: 39
Palatka: 41 (warmer near river0
Starke: 38
Green Cove Springs: 39
Orange Park: 39
Slowly moderating temps. for the rest of the week into the weekend.
The Miami Nat. Weather Service issued an "information statement" Tue. regarding the past wet season, the upcoming dry season & winter outlook. As I've mentioned before, we're in a classic moderate -- & possibly strong -- La Nina which usually translates into a dry winter/spring & milder temps. Having said that, La Nina winters are also known for "quick starts" -- a cold Nov. after a warm Oct....then mild in the middle -- Dec. through Feb. -- followed by a cool spring.
From the Miami N.W.S.:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007
...DRY SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...LA NINA LIKELY TO BRING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS NEXT WINTER AND SPRING TO SOUTH FLORIDA...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS USHERED IN THE DRY SEASON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS YEAR`S DRY SEASON BEGAN ON NOVEMBER 3, WHICH IS ABOUT 17 DAYS LATER THAN THE MEDIAN START DATE OF OCTOBER 17. THE RAINY SEASON OF 2007 BEGAN ON MAY 14, EXCEPT OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE IT BEGAN ON JUNE 1, AND ENDED ON NOVEMBER 2. THE DURATION OF THE 2007 RAINY SEASON WAS 173 DAYS, EXCEPT 155 DAYS INTERIOR AND WEST. THIS IS COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE DURATION OF 153 DAYS.
RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION VARIED GREATLY BETWEEN THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS AND THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AVERAGED AROUND 45 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN MAY 14 AND NOVEMBER 2, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. MOST INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS, HOWEVER, AVERAGED ONLY AROUND 30 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THEREFORE, SOME AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DID NOT BENEFIT FROM THIS YEAR`S LONGER RAINY SEASON, WHICH DID LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE DROUGH CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS THESE AREAS SINCE MARCH.
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER AND SPRING
SEASONS OF 2007-2008 IS FOR MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. LA NINA IS CHARACTERIZED BY A COOLING OF
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS WHICH TYPICALLY REACHES ITS PEAK IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY. THIS COOLING OF THE PACIFIC TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES AFFECTS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS WORLDWIDE. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, INCLUDING FLORIDA, THE TYPICAL MAIN IMPACT OF LA NINA IS A DRIER THAN NORMAL WINTER AND SPRING.
THIS YEAR`S RELATIVE LACK OF RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SOUTH FLORIDA MEANS THAT THE AREA AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE CONTINUES UNDER SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING THE GREATER NAPLES AREA. IF THE PRESENT LA NINA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS FORECAST, THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE DRY SEASON WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS. THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY WORSEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEASONAL FORECASTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS, AND CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN
INTERPRETING THESE FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS, LONG TERM OUTLOOKS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC), ALONG WITH ANALYSIS OF PREVIOUS LA NINA EVENTS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE, SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS UPCOMING WINTER AND SPRING. STATISTICAL STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT THE PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS IS 3 TO 4 TIMES GREATER THAN THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS COLD SEASON, AND DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SYSTEM WHICH IS ALREADY APPROXIMATELY 5 FEET BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF DRYNESS IS DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERN
POSITION OF THE JET STREAM ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING LA NINA WINTERS AND SPRINGS. THIS CAUSES COLD FRONTS THAT PASS THROUGH FLORIDA TO HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE, THEREFORE PRODUCING LESS RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES SIGNALS DURING LA NINA WINTERS AND SPRINGS ARE OFTEN NOT AS WELL DEFINED. HOWEVER, THE TENDENCY IS FOR GENERALLY WARMER WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS AS LESS COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. EVEN WITH WARMER WINTERS, THE LA NINA PATTERN CAN PRODUCE BRIEF BUT INTENSE COLD OUTBREAKS AND FREEZES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR EXAMPLE, THE LA NINA WINTERS OF 1985 AND 1996 SAW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
This Sat., Nov. 10th is "Crafternoon" at Jarboe Park, Neptune Beach. I'll be the emcee for the 5-hour Children's Home Society fundraiser from 11am-4pm. It's great fun for the family with lots of crafts (some that are ready to be bought from "Natural Life" & other crafts that can be made on-sight)...you can tie-dye a t-shirt...a wide variety of entertainment...& good food. Last year was my first time to emcee the annual Crafternoon that was started in 2000. I had great fun as did my kids + the proceeds go to the worth-while Children's Home Society. The weather looks to be great -- hope to see ya' there!
