2 years ago "Katrina" slammed into the Gulf Coast -- a natural catastrophe of epic proportions for the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama & areas east of New Orleans in Louisiana....but a man-made disaster in New Orleans. For 3 stories from New Orleans when I was there for the National Hurricane Conference, go to our "Hurricane Center" & look on the right part of the screen. The one hour show is divided into 4 parts. My stories:
(1) FOX Chief Met. Bob Breck on how he weathered the storm before, during & after -- Part II of the program. (2) A neighborhood in Gentilly just south of Lake Pontchartrain devastated by "Katrina" flooding only to be hit be a EF-2 tornado last Feb. One home destroyed was ready for inspection & about to be moved back into when the tornado hit -- Part II of the program.
(3) NOAH -- New Orleans Area Homes...a nonprofit founded by the Baptist Convention + Salvation Army that rebuilds homes & churches throughout New Orleans -- Part IV of the program.
As for the tropics right now, it has been & is relatively quiet since "Dean" last week. Low pressure is now several hundred miles east of Jacksonville & has some potential to slowly develop as a tropical system, but it'll be a long, arduous process. First of all, dry air is being entrained into the circulation + the system remains cool core rather than warm core. So for this low to become tropical, it'll have to shrug off the dry air which will take some time AND become warm core -- such a transition is almost always a gradual one. This low will drift south & a little west the next few days & any tropical development would likely take place near or just north of the Bahamas this weekend. As for the First Coast, little impact other than some increase in north/northeast winds, seas, surf & rip current risk. A stronger
system by the weekend or early next week -- depending on its exact location -- could mean gustier winds & higher seas, surf & rip currents. If the system does develop, it appears it'll eventually have an alley next week to move north then northeast but that's far from certain given the number of days out we are + high pressure will be moving into the Northeast U.S. Depending on the high's location, the "alley" could get blocked.
A couple of tropical waves are also in the Central & Eastern Atlantic & bear watching. Long range forecast models have been back-&-forth on tropical cyclone development next week though were rather bullish on such development earlier this week. It seems likely & logical that we'd have at least a couple of new named storms in the Atlantic during the next couple weeks. The atmospheric "upward motion" (velocity potential anomalies) is still strong over the Atlantic Basin + sea surface temps. are warm & shear is generally not great. If we don't see development by Sept. 10th-15th, the "upward motion" will just about be over for at least a couple of weeks, probably longer. It would seem we'll be hard pressed to get more than 10-12 total storms this season -- especially if we see no more than 1 or 2 named systems the next couple weeks. Dr. Gray/Klotzbach will be updating their seasonal forecast next Tue. But no matter how many storms -- as I've preached before -- it all comes down to where they "land". Given the pattern (persistent & strong high pressure stretched out across the Central/Northern Atlantic + storm development more likely in the Western part of the Basin vs. Eastern), we'll have to be wary of the potential for landfalling cyclones as the season goes on (U.S., Caribbean, Mexico, etc.).
We are, by the way, seeing development in the far East Pacific off the coast of Mexico -- a possible indicator of the strong "upward motion" that will continue east into the Atlantic Basin the next 1-2 weeks.
