This is as dry as this time of year can get on the First Coast & there's not much hope for much rain of consequence for at least the next few days. Strong upper level high pressure is solidly in control over the S.E. U.S. with the center very near & northeast of Jacksonville & only slowly moving west. The ridge should be far enough west by Thu. & Fri. to allow for at least isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers & storms. Until then, there should be virtually no rain through Wed. & afternoon temps. will be some 5-8 degree above avg. in the mid 90s with heat indices 100-105 degrees. Our best chance of rain in the forseeable future might end up being a tropical wave now about 1,000 miles east of Florida that is steadily moving west. Whether or not this system develops into a tropical cyclone -- which is distinctly possible -- the system should manage to increase moisture & eventually rainfall. Usually the greater rain coverage is on the east sides of tropical waves, so we'll have to wait until the weekend for the potential for better rainfall coverage though the ridge looks to break down enough to allow for some disturbances to move through the area Thu.-Fri.
"Dean" is clearly going to move through the Yucatan Tuesday but should end up far enough south of Cancun to spare that resort city massive damage. It'll be a close call for Belize City, but it looks like it'll be just north of Belize City which would also spare that city the worst (along with the beautiful barrier reef). As for Jamaica, the worst is over & the turn more westward late Sun. spared much of the island from a more devastating hit. Still...the South Coast took a strong hit & winds in Kingston gusted to more than 100 mph for more than 3 consecutive hours. But many of the resorts are on the North Coast & fared far better. Here's a statement issued by "Sandals Resorts" (forwarded to me by our anxious 5pm producer who will be honeymooning in Jamaica in less than 2 weeks!):
MIAMI, FL, August 20, 2007 – All seven Sandals Resorts, Royal Plantation and the three Beaches Resorts in Jamaica report no structural damage today as a result of Hurricane Dean. "We are thrilled to report the extraordinary good news that our resorts have weathered the storm," said an elated Sandals Resorts founder and chairman, Gordon "Butch" Stewart. "Thus far, the detailed assessment shows that Dean left no damage beyond landscaping. The resorts never lost power, guests are comfortable and debris clean-up has begun and all of our resorts are open, operational and accepting guest arrivals. In St. Lucia, where Hurricane Dean glanced past north of the island as a Category 2 storm on Friday, all three Sandals Resorts are open and operating normally.
Since St. Lucia and Jamaica did experience hurricane force winds, Sandals and Beaches enacted their Blue Chip Hurricane Guarantee and every guest staying at the three Sandals locations in St. Lucia and ten Sandals and Beaches locations in Jamaica, will receive a free replacement vacation (excluding airfare) to return.
Sandals Resorts and Beaches Resorts Hurricane Blue Chip Guarantee provides affected guests with a free replacement vacation (excluding airfare). The free replacement stay is for the same duration and room category as the originally booked trip and is valid for one year after the original vacation.
In addition, guests at resorts in Jamaica reacted with thunderous applause to news that Sandals chairman Stewart extended a complimentary night for guests who could not depart their resorts in Jamaica due to cancelled flights last night or this evening.
"What could've been an awful day has turned into one of the most blessed," said Stewart. "Dean turned south sparing our beloved Jamaica. Our people are safe and our resorts in St. Lucia and in Jamaica are in impeccable condition. The investments we've made in these countries including our new river suites in Jamaica and rondovals in St. Lucia are unscathed and ready to welcome guests. It’s all good."
For info. on Jamaica's recovery & current weather, click on Go-Jamaica (includes live radio broadcasts).
As for how the global forecast models predicted "Dean"...the GFS was excellent in that it snuffed out a tropical cyclone for a long time prior to actual development + was excellent with the movement from about Thu. on -- prior to Thu. it was all over the map....the EUROPEAN was late to "find" the cylcone & initially way too slow but did very well with both intensity & track once it analyzed the system...UKMET wasn't too great -- had trouble finding the storm & then -- when it did -- it tried to dissipate the storm...NOGAPS was a disappointment pure & simple -- had a hard time "finding" the hurricane -- has done o.k. very recently on the track but too weak...GFDL which is the so-called hurricane model was decidedly too far north & northeast with the storm's track but pretty good on intensity. I would have to think NHC was disppointed with the GFDL -- this model also had "Flossie" in the Central Pacific last week too far north & east. Keeping a "track record" of how forecast models behave forecasting each storm through a hurricane season can give us (forecasters) great insight into which model might be better for the season & -- more importantly -- what model biases to keep a lookout for. Once a forecaster takes into account a compilation of the models & their biases and/or shortcomings, the next forecast will hopefully be a more accurate one.
The first day of 1st grade today for my 6-year old. Oh what a day! She told me she "was a little nervous". And when I asked if I could videotape her at school, she said "not in front of all the kids". I agreed & just taped her getting out of the car. Talked to her this afternoon & all seemed to go very well. I only vaguely remember 1st grade -- a product of aging I guess. But if I was anywhere close to as cute as my 6-yr. old then I must have been a handsome "devil" (I don't mean literally!).
