Some subtle changes in our weather in the coming days. First...a weak cool front will move into Central Georgia Sat. with an outflow boundary probably somewhere near the Fl./Ga. border from a large & intense thunderstorm complex moving south/southwest across Georgia into Alabama & the Florida Panhandle. The upper level low near the Bahamas will move west/southwest across Florida Sat. so we should with all this we should see scattered midday through afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Coverage should be greater than past days but still scattered. Sun.-Mon. will feature onshore east winds with some tropical moisture. The
front will dissipate but the onshore winds should bring showers ashore overnight into the morning hours with scattered mainly inland thunderstorms from midday
through the afternoon. High temps. will come down a bit with the east winds but nights will be very warm at the beaches. East winds will continue for much of next week increasing seas & surf along with a moderate risk of rip currents. Scattered nighttime coastal showers will continue with a few afternoon storms well inland but temps. will be warming aloft at the same time so probably not a lot of rain. With persistent east winds, we should be treated to a beautiful tropical sky -- big puffy white & gray cumulus clouds up against a rich, blue sky. Caribbean-like, in other words.
Speaking of the Caribbean...that's where you don't want to be this weekend -- especially Jamaica Sun. & Cancun by Mon. "Dean" is large & powerful & will probably manage to become a Cat. 5 at times through the weekend with 155+ mph winds. Though not plentiful, buoy data will be interesting to watch in the Caribbean.
Still looks like "Dean" is an issue for the Western Gulf eventually but -- depending on how strong the ridge of high pressure is over the Southern U.S. -- could end up staying south of Texas. This is going to be a disaster for some places & some great dive spots between Jamaica, the Caymans & Cancun are going to get strafed. The impact for the First Coast is minor -- some easterly swells coming ashore this weekend...& a higher risk of rip currents (largely caused by a long fetch of easterly winds off the Atlantic).
Things, tropical that is, look interesting again by the end of next week into the following week. Long range global forecast models are indicating waves now in the Eastern Atlantic & over West Africa developing as they head west across the Atlantic. A couple models are hinting there could be 2 separate tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin -- Southwest Atlantic/Caribbean -- in roughly 10 days or so.
From the Insurance Information Institute (apparently folks are actually realizing there is going to be a hurricane season & maybe one full of landfalls!):
NEW YORK, August 17, 2007 — Although the path of Hurricane Dean is still uncertain, the Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) suggests that home and business owners review their insurance policies now to see what coverages and deductibles apply to damage from hurricanes and windstorm.
A standard homeowners policy deductible is usually $500 or $1,000. However, if a storm is severe, a windstorm or hurricane deductible may apply. Deductibles typically range from 1 to 5 percent of the replacement cost of rebuilding a home, but may be as high as 25 percent. The choice of a higher deductible is usually at the discretion of the policyholder. The deductible depends on many factors that differ from state to state, and sometimes from insurer to insurer. These factors include the home’s proximity to the shore, its insured value and the “trigger”—how strong the hurricane must be for the hurricane deductible to go into effect. For example, a 2 percent deductible on a home with an insured value of $100,000 would be $2,000.
Triggers vary by state and insurer and may apply when the National Weather Service (NWS) "names" a tropical storm, declares a hurricane watch or warning, or defines the hurricane's intensity. Triggers generally include a timing factor, such as damage occurring within 24 hours before the storm is named or a hurricane makes landfall up to as long as 72 hours after the hurricane is downgraded to a lesser storm or a hurricane watch cancelled. Read your policy carefully and make sure you understand what your trigger for a windstorm or hurricane deductible is. If you are uncertain, speak to your insurance agent or company representative.
Insurers in 18 hurricane-vulnerable states now use percentage deductibles on homeowners insurance policies as opposed to a dollar deductible, to limit their exposure to catastrophic losses from natural disasters. Percentage deductibles are sometimes mandatory and may apply to an entire state or just part of it. In some states or portions of a state, policyholders have a "buy back" option—paying a higher premium in return for a traditional dollar, rather than a percentage, deductible.
In the United States special pools, known as Beach and Windstorm Plans, ensure the availability of windstorm insurance for properties close to the ocean. These pools, which exist in seven states along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in various forms, are operated by property insurers doing business in the state, and in some cases by the state itself.
More than 68 million people now live in hurricane-vulnerable coastal areas of the United States, up from 52 million in 1970; a 31 percent increase over 30 years. Homes and commercial structures now have an insured property valued at nearly $4 trillion, noted the I.I.I. Because of the greater buildup along coastal areas and increasing construction costs, the cost of repairing and replacing structures due to natural disasters has increased dramatically over the last decade. Since 1990, insurers have paid more than $240 billion in catastrophe-related losses—or about $1.2 billion per month. The term “catastrophe” in the insurance industry denotes an event that causes more than $25 million in insured damage. Included are such well-known events as Hurricane Katrina and the Northridge earthquake, as well as many smaller disasters associated with tropical storms, tornados, wildfires, hail, ice and snow.
Other Things to Consider...........
Hurricanes can cause major floods. While standard homeowners, renters and business insurance policies cover wind and rain damage from hurricanes, they do not cover flooding, according to the I.I.I. Flood insurance is available from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), a division of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and can be purchased through insurance companies or agents. For more information, see www.floodsmart.gov.
The “comprehensive” portion of automobile insurance policies covers losses due to flooding, but not all drivers purchase comprehensive coverage. People often buy comprehensive coverage to protect cars when they are new but drop it as their market value declines.
For a business, the costs of a disaster can extend beyond the physical damage to the premises, equipment, furniture and other business property to the potential loss of income while the premises are unusable. A businesses disaster recovery plan should include a detailed review of the business’s insurance policy to make sure there are no gaps in coverage. In addition to building and property coverage, the policy should include business interruption insurance, extra expense insurance and law or ordinance coverage.
Business interruption insurance (also known as business income insurance) provides coverage for lost revenue and normal operating expenses if the place of business becomes uninhabitable after a loss, or during the time repairs are being made. Extra expense insurance provides coverage for the extra expenses incurred after a disaster, such as temporary relocation or leasing of business equipment in order to avoid or minimize the suspension of operations during the time that repairs are being completed to the normal place of business. Ordinance or law coverage is in place to rebuild or repair the building in compliance with the most recent local building codes.
Even if the basic policy of a business covers expenses and loss of net business income, it may not cover income interruptions due to damage that occurs away from the premises, such as to a key customer or supplier or to a utility company. This additional coverage can also be added to an existing policy.
To learn more about how to insure against a hurricane, contact an insurance agent or company representative. More information on wind and hurricane deductibles along with home and business insurance information can be found on the I.I.I.’s Web site, www.iii.org.
Earth Gauge: Temperature Rising
The National Weather Service uses the "Heat Index" to indicate how hot the weather feels to the body when temperature and humidity are taken into account. It is important to remember, however, that the values in the Heat Index are calculated for shady conditions - it can feel up to 15 degrees hotter in direct sunlight! Air pollution can also become a problem on hot days, when when pollutants from car exhaust, factories, and other sources react with heat and sunlight to create ground-level ozone pollution.
Earth Tip: Kids tend to spend more time outside and perform more vigorous activities, such as running and outdoor sports, which can expose them to health risks from heat and poor air quality. Pay attention to heat advisories and air quality reports in your area, and when conditions are poor, consider rescheduling sports games and other outdoor activities for another day. If you do go outside, aim for early morning or evening hours, when temperatures and air pollution levels are likely to be lower.
(Sources: National Weather Service. "JetStream: Heat Index." http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/hi.htm; Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America. "Asthma Facts and Figures." http://www.aafa.org/print.cfm?id=8&sub=42))
Climate Fact: Looming Lake Loss
Most of the Arctic has warmed considerably over the last thirty years; parts of Alaska have warmed by 3.5 degrees Celsius. Despite an increase in precipitation during this same period, the region is losing its lakes. In Alaska, for example, the total area of the region's lakes has shrunk by between 14 and 30 percent. In Siberia, there has been a six percent decrease in total lake surface area. This decrease would be greater if it were not offset by an increase in lakes at the most northern regions. Both the increases and decreases are part of the same process. As the ground warms, pockets in the soil collapse and depressions in the surface form. At first, water flows into these depressions and creates lakes. This water, however, facilitates warming of deeper layers of the soil. These layers then become permeable, and the lake water drains into the subsurface and the lakes disappear. Because waterfowl inhabit these lakes in the summer, the lake losses threaten the hunting opportunities that the region's inhabitants have enjoyed for generations.
(Sources: Smith, LC et al. "Disappearing Arctic Lakes." Science. 3 June 2005: Volume 308. pp. 1429-1430 and Lovett, Richard. "Warming May Be Drying Up Alaska's Lakes, Photo Study Says." National Geographic News 17 October 2006.)
How about a family fundraiser at the our beautiful Jax Zoo & Gardens that raises money for the zoo & is great fun for the entire family. It's Sat., Aug. 25th...details from the zoo:
YOU’RE INVITED TO SPLASH N’BASH AT ZOOBILEE!
Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens’ Family FUNdraiser
Jacksonville, FL ,August 16, 2007— The Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens, announced its second annual family fundraiser, ZOObilee, to be held on Saturday, August 25, from 6:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. in the Zoo’s new Great Lawn area, part of its new Gardens at Trout River Plaza due to open in September.
“This is a great way to enjoy food, entertainment, animal encounters, enjoy the Splash Ground and be among the first to preview our new Gardens of Trout River Plaza—all while contributing to the Zoo’s continued growth for the benefit of the community,” said Dennis Pate, executive director of the Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens.
All evening long attendees can ride the train and carousel, enjoy kid-friendly food from some of the area’s great restaurants, and adult-friendly drinks, enjoy music and entertainment. Kids will love playing in the Play Park Splash Ground, on the giant water slide and bouncy house and can play games for prizes and participate in a special Zoo Cake Walk with animal food cupcakes to feed the giraffes! The evening ends with a blast when Tony Boselli, former Jaguar star player, draws the name of the lucky winner of the Coggin Chevrolet Trailblazer.
The event is open to the general public. Tickets are $75 for adults and $25 for children (children under 3 are free) and can be purchased online at jacksonvillezoo.org. All proceeds will benefit the Jacksonville Zoo.
Have a whale of a weekend....for updates on the tropics, see "Talking the Tropics With Mike".
