Hot, dry weather to continue through the weekend for the First Coast with afternoon highs near record levels 95-100 & heat indices (indices or indexes is gramatically correct, by the way) of 100-112 degrees. While a few isolated thunderstorms with local downpours will develop each afternoon -- mainly along the sea breeze -- most places will not get rain. And now we're finding parts of Northeast Florida becoming very dry again. That's the problem with long term drought (Jax is still 18.4" below avg. since Jan. 1, 2006)...even though rains have increased the last 6-8 weeks, any stretch of about 5 or more days without rain & the soil dries out in a hurry.
There are indications -- independent of what "Dean" might do or not do -- that some tropical moisture might overspread the area early next week which would increase area rainfall.
I've fielded lots of questions the last few weeks about our "slow" hurricane season so far. Not true, not true at all. I think people get caught up in the media hype regarding
the seasonal forecasts then get lulled into a false sense of security & that the forecast was inaccurate when little happens. Realize June & July are typically quiet in the Atlantic Basin then rev up in Aug.-Sept. The seasonal forecasts are just that --
SEASON -- which is June 1 - Nov. 30. Furthermore, the forecasts really are intended to simply be guidance as to whether or not to expect an average, below avg. or above avg. season & that's it. Nothin' to do with intensity or where storms might hit. So don't get all tied up with the numbers. We could very well have 8-10 named storms (including "Dean") in the Atlantic Basin between now & mid Oct. That would be an avg. of one or more a week -- that's active! But the seasonal number would then "only" be about 12-14 -- above avg., yes, but not particularly expceptional. But this will be the norm. during this "active cycle" (multi-decadal signal) in the Atlantic Basin -- higher than avg. storm numbers but not usually like the hyper season of 2005.
Today's upgrade of "Dean" -- the 4th named storm of the season -- is actually well ahead of the avg. date for the 4th named storm of Aug. 29th. In fact, the avg. date for the 2nd named storm is just Aug. 6th & 3rd named storm Aug. 20th. The avg. date of the first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin is Aug. 14th...2nd hurricane Aug. 30th...3rd hurricane Sept. 9th. Bottom line: a "slow" start to the hurricane season is typical & not at all indicative of how a season might eventually unfold (remember 2004!).
Interesting cover article in this weeks (Aug. 13) "Time" -- "Hurricane Katrina -- 2 Years Later". The subtitle calls the situation "pathetic". The first line of the story says it all:
"The most important thing to remember about the drowning of New Orleans is that it wasn't a natural disaster. It was a man-made disaster, created by lousy engineering, misplaced priorities and pork-barrel politics."The Army Corps of Engineers did respond...claiming that there are "many errors and misrepresentations." But I'd have to think there are more than a few nervous folks in & around New Orleans given what looks to be an active month or two ahead...not to mention "Dean"...which could eventually end up in the Gulf sometime next week.
