Hot, hot & hotter this week as our strong upper level ridge holds sway over the area. The ridge did drift west over the weekend which is why we had such intense storms Sat. afternoon -- especially in Southeast Georgia....& strong storms Sun. from Waycross to near Lake City. But now some drier air coming south is being directed clockwise around the upper level high (see the
Southeast U.S. water vapor satellite -- the darker "coloring" is drier air aloft). This dry air -- at mid & upper levels, still very humid at the surface -- will serve to limit thunderstorm acitivity for the most part. There are a couple of disturbances that could help our thunderstorm chances. One will move across the area tonight but the best "lift" is near & shortly after midnight -- not particularly favorable since it'll be the middle of the night. Still, we could see a few showers & storms overnight with this feature -- especially closer to the coast. Then another disturbance will slide down the coast into Southeast Georgia & Northeast Florida Wed. Better timing (coincident with afternoon heating) so we could see more thunderstorm activity -- at least to some degree -- Wed. afternoon. Otherwise we're in for a week of bakin'. In fact, we'll be in record territory. The following is my forecast high followed by the record for the date through the weekend:
Tue.: 98....98/1953
Wed.: 98...99/1956
Thu.: 98...98/1954
Fri.: 98...102/1954
Sat.: 96...99/1954
Sun.: 94...99/1954
Sort of interesting to see we're rivaling the heat of 1954 as that's one of the analog years from Dr. Gray's/Klotzbach seasonal hurricane forecast. Upon
closer inspection of that year...11 named storms occurred, 8 were hurricanes & 4 major...3 of which occurred between Aug. 30 & Oct. 15. Interestingly, no landfalls occurred in the Eastern Gulf, Florida or Southeast Coast but there were 2 New England landfalls & 1 that hit near Wilmington. There's also an interesting remark from Walter Davis from the Weather Bureau Office, Miami (where the hurricane center was then located)......mentioning that less tropical cyclone activity has a tendency to occur (during the previous 50 years or so) when drought covers the East & especially Southeast U.S. as was the case in 1954. So here we are in a longterm drought over Florida & much of the Southeast. So how could this season be different then, say, 1954? The answer might be La Nina which could mean a higher number of storms (thought not extreme) -- something close to NOAA's & Gray's forecast...& a likelihood for U.S. landfall or near landfalls due to La Nina & -- more importantly -- the set-up of upper level high pressure over the Atlantic & U.S.
In any case, the tropics are indeed "awakening". First we have T.D. #4 in the Eastern Atlantic which I've been talking about for days. This system will eventually become a hurricane but it could take a while due to some shear, dry air & its fast movement. Forecast models are quite literally all over the map on this system. The GFS has swung from the Yucatan to Texas to Florida to Chesapeake Bay to Newfoundland & then back again. Right now the model brings the system ashore near D.C. but the last couple days was taking it through the Caribbean. It'll do some more "swinging" no doubt. The European model is way too slow.
It seems likely that some part of the U.S. will be affected by this cyclone but not until next week. Lots of time to watch & forecast. Seems quite clear the storm will not be able to recurve harmlessly into the Atlantic.
There's another system that's been slowly trying to get its act together -- northeast of the Yucatan & west/northwest of Cuba in the extreme Southern Gulf. It's quite possible this will become at least a depression if not tropical storm but will be steered into the Upper Mexico Coast or the Texas Coast by Thu. or so. No threat to Florida. Recon. is scheduled to go in Tue. afternoon if the low gets better organized.
Depression: Winds up to 38 mph.....
Tropical Storm: Winds 39-73 mph....
Hurricane: Winds 74+ mph.....
Next 2 names: "Dean" & "Erin".
And there's yet another storm, but this one is in the Central Pacific -- "Flossie" (Pacific storms have a different list of names than the Atlantic) is a strong Cat. 3 hurricane & is going to brush the big island of Hawaii as it slowly weakens. Close enough to Hawaii & Honolulu to cause strong winds, heavy rain & dangerous seas Tue. night-Wed. The last hurricane to directly hit Hawaii was "Iniki" in 1992. Most hurricanes that do hit Hawaii come from the south or southwest & not the east as is the case with "Flossie". Click
here for more on Hawaii hurricanes.
And check out
"Talking the Tropics With Mike" for daily updates on the tropics which is updated multiple times daily when & if necessary.
The
Perseid meteor shower peaked Sun. night but will still be visible for a while as long as clouds & haze don't get in the way. Look in the eastern sky & get away from any light pollution.
My weekend went "down the toilet".....here's the poop...I mean scoop: the tank was leaking water into the bowl costing me some money & wasting water, so I decided Sat. was the day to tackle the toilet. Of course, it ended up being a 2-day, 3 trips-to-the-hardware-store job but I now know toilet tanks like never before! I figure I saved lots of money vs. calling a plumber & we're now flushin' "cleanly". My wife asked why I didn't just go ahead & change out the other 2 toilet tanks. I replied that "they didn't look near as bad". And then it was off to the beach! One caution: when you're tightening the nut on the bolt that holds the tank on the bowl...don't over-tighten it or you'll crack the tank! That cost me another $30, by the way.
