The heat is on! Today was the 5th day in a row above 90 & the last several have made it to between 95 & 100 with a few inland spots making it to 100...that's not to mention a heat index of 105-115 degrees! More of the same Friday into Sat. but thunderstorms should gradually become at least a little more plentiful -- especially this weekend. Not everyone will get rain but local spots will get a good soaking & coverage should go from about 20% today to 35% Fri. to at least 50% for the weekend. The upper level ridge of high pressure is, however, going to be tough to bring down completely, & while we should see it move west a little the next few days, it looks like it'll restrengthen overhead next week. So while temps. will come down some, it won't be a lot with highs still likely to make it into the low 90s & probably higher again by early to mid of next week. Low temps. are just barely getting below 80 so nights are not offering much relief. Dryness is again becoming an issue in some areas & if you're one of the dry spots & don't get much rain the next few days, you could be dry into much of next week. So local pockets of a so-called mini-drought will be developing... not surprising given we're still in the grips of a long term drought.
NOAA issued their updated seasonal hurricane forecast today. Not a whole lot of change but -- as expected -- just a slight drop (by one) in overall numbers from the May outlook -- 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 "major" hurricanes. Most interesting is that the 75% for an above average season has been increased to 85%. Look folks...the hurricane season is far from over & is just getting ready to go. Expect an active end of Aug. through Sept. into Oct. The actual numbers are not important. The forecast is merely a guide as to whether or not to expect a below average, average or above average season; that's all it is. Inevitably it all comes down to if & where storms strike & how strong the storm is upon landfall. You can read NOAA's forecast by clicking here & click here for their reasoning.
Right now the tropics look pretty quiet but there is some action in the Central & Eastern Caribbean in the form of a couple of relatively meager-looking tropical waves. However, the
European model picks up on this activity (as it has for a couple days now) & develops a tropical cyclone by the early to middle of next week in the Western/Northwest Caribbean moving it then either into the Western Gulf or Yucatan. So this might be an area to watch 4-7 days from now. If something does develop out of a wave in the Caribbean, it would make sense for any system at such a southern latitude to track more west then north considering the strong upper level ridge now over the South half of the U.S. which would mean Florida would escape -- at least for that particular system -- more of a concern for Mexico and/or Texas.
A rare tornado in New York City Wed. & even more rare...it was early in the morning -- near 6:30 resulting in 9 injuries along with flash flooding. A pretty strong EF-2 tornado...here's the storm survey from the N.W.S., Upton, NY:
...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRM EF-2 TORNADO IN
NEW YORK CITY TODAY...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ALONG WITH NEW YORK CITY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT A TORNADO SKIPPED
ALONG AN APPROXIMATE 9 MILE LONG PATH FROM STATEN ISLAND TO BROOKLYN
EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN IN STATEN ISLAND AT APPROXIMATELY
6:22 AM IN THE VICINITY OF ST. AUSTINS PLACE IN THE LIVINGSTON -
RANDALL MANOR AREA. THE TORNADO MOVED EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL DAMAGE
OCCURRING IN THE TOMPKINSVILLE AREA. MOST OF THE DAMAGE IN STATEN
ISLAND WAS TO TREES...AND ESTIMATED TO BE EF-1...WITH WINDS OF 86 TO
100 MPH.
THE TORNADO HEADED EAST ACROSS THE VERRAZANO NARROWS...AND TOUCHED
DOWN AGAIN IN BROOKLYN AT BAY RIDGE. THIS OCCURRED SOMETIME JUST
AFTER 6:30 AM ON BAY RIDGE AVENUE BETWEEN THIRD AND FOURTH
AVENUES...AND CONTINUED ON AN EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS 68TH STREET
BETWEEN THIRD AND FOURTH AVENUES. ELEVEN HOMES IN THIS SECTION HAD
MODERATE TO SEVERE ROOF DAMAGE. THE STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO LEIF ERICSON PARK SQUARE...WHERE SEVERE DAMAGE
TO TREES OCCURRED. AS THE TORNADO LIFTED...IT TORE OFF THE ROOF OF
THE NISSAN CAR DEALERSHIP AT THE CORNER OF 66TH STREET AND FIFTH
AVENUE. THE TORNADO RETURNED TO THE GROUND FARTHER NORTHEAST...WITH
SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE ALONG 6TH AVENUE. BASED ON THE ASSESSED
DAMAGE...THIS TORNADIC DAMAGE IS CLASSIFIED AS EF-2 WITH ESTIMATED
WIND SPEEDS OF 111 TO 135 MPH.
THE TORNADO RETURNED TO THE GROUND AS ANOTHER POCKET OF SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE OCCURRED ON 58TH STREET BETWEEN FIFTH AND SIXTH AVENUES. THE
ROOF WAS RIPPED OFF OF 5 HOMES...AND TREE DAMAGE INDICATES STRONG
EF-1 DAMAGE.
THE TORNADO THEN HEADED EAST...AND TOUCHED DOWN AGAIN IN THE
FLATBUSH VICINITY AT APPROXIMATELY 6:40 AM. NUMEROUS
TREES...APPROXIMATELY 30...WERE UPROOTED ALONG OCEAN AVENUE BETWEEN
BEVERLEY ROAD AND CHURCH AVENUE. THE DAMAGE ALSO EXTENDED TO THE
WEST TO ARGYLE ROAD.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAD ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF STATEN ISLAND AND BROOKLYN AT 6:28 AM. A SECOND TORNADO
WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 6:50 AM FOR SECTIONS OF
BROOKLYN...QUEENS...AND NASSAU COUNTY.
The PGA Championship is underway & sweltering heat today in Tulsa will continue for the rest of the tournament through Sun. Early morning temps. will be in the 70s with afternoon highs near or even a little above 100 with a heat index of 110-113 degrees!...& little wind. No rain in sight through the weekend for Tulsa so the greens will be hard, the ball will roll and players will be sweatin'.
So I'm back in the office after a few days in the good ol' midwest at home in Iowa with my parents. A few highlights:
-- Watching my kids interact with "grammy" & "grampy"
-- Mom's reliable smile & positive disposition
-- Dad's laugh
-- My 4-yr. old suddenly taking off on her bike without training wheels.
-- Time with my wife
-- A 5-mile roundtrip bike ride through the cornfields of Central Iowa & along the local golf course
-- Golfin' with my dad (see previous post!)....and "discovering" a driver that I can hit (I think!)
-- Thunderstorms
-- Corn on the cob -- I think our 6-yr. old now likes corn on the cob better than chocolate.
-- Corn Hole...for those of you who have no idea what this game is, here ya' go. It's good clean fun & addictive. -- Fresh, home-grown fruits & vegetables
-- Friendly people
-- While talking with a former classmate...coming to the realization it's been 25 yrs. since H.S. graduation!
-- Playing tag with my wife, Dad & the kids & watching my dad lunge to tag my wife only to end up on on his belly with a grass-stained knee.
-- The feel of soft grass on the bottom of my feet.
-- Going down the new big slide at the local pool....better yet -- my daughters jumping off the lower diving board then actually having the guts to jump off the high board. One dad asked us how old the girls were because his 12 yr.-old son still won't jump off the high board. -- My daughters playing in the yard with not a care in the world -- watching birds, rabbits, catching insects then freeing them...and -- better yet -- knowing they're safe.
-- Visiting & playing card games with my spry 91-yr. old -- Hearing Iowans complain about the "heat" (though it was very humid!)
