Nice steady, soaking rain for the area -- pretty atypical for this time of year (vs. thunderstorm "pounders"). Long range models continue to be insistent on building an upper level ridge of high pressure over much of the Southeast half of the country. Models (especially the GFS) have been too aggressive with the building of this ridge all summer but they may very well be onto something this time...given the time of year, consistency among several of the long range global forecast models and strong troughing developing over the North Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. If this ridge does come to fruition, it'll be hotter weather for much of the Eastern two-thirds of the nation...more typical sea breeze-driven thunderstorms for the First Coast...& tropical waves (or systems?) being steered through the Caribbean, Southwest Atlantic and/or Gulf of Mexico depending on the exact position, strength & orientation of the ridge.
A well written & documented summary has been put online of the severe storm outbreak July 21st -- highlighted by an intense storm that moved from Charlton Co., Ga. to Clay Co., Fl. Check it out at the Jax NWS web site.
State Farm Insurance is getting the word out about hail damage & mitigation. In 2005 just 4 U.S. hailstorms caused as much as $1.5 billion in damage. Here's the
report from State Farm:
Hail is a peril that threatens all but a handful of states in the United States, but it doesn't strike all areas equally. Since 1980, the country has averaged 3,000 hailstorms a year, with four states accounting for 42 percent of the total. Texas, 500 per year; Oklahoma, 400; Kansas, 225; Nebraska, 135.
Texas officials estimate that up to 40 percent of all homeowners insurance claims in that state result from hail damage. While the Midwest and Great Plains states have the most hailstorms, Colorado has the most storms with large-size hail (diameter greater than 1.5 inches). So even though Colorado has fewer storms, the storms that occur cause more damage. (The largest hailstone ever recorded -- more than 6 inches in diameter -- fell in Kansas in 1970.)
Among State Farm's 25 highest claim payouts in history, eight involved significant damage caused by hail. The company's fifth-largest payout for a single catastrophic event occurred in 1992 -- about 68,000 claims totaling nearly $245 million resulting from a hailstorm in Fort Worth, Texas. Only four natural disasters have caused more losses to State Farm customers: Hurricane Andrew (1992) in Florida, $3.6 billion; Northridge earthquake (1994) in Los Angeles, $3 billion; Hurricane Hugo (1989) in South Carolina, $424 million; and wildfires (1991) in Oakland, Calif., $386 million.
Lost in these large numbers is the number of repeat claims -- resulting in payments to the same customers for the same type of repairs from the same type of hailstorms. There are some areas of the nation's hail belt where homes have been reshingled two and three times during a 10-year period.
While a hailstorm usually strikes a relatively limited geographical area, there are parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska where hailstorms average six strikes a year or more. Clearly, the same houses are exposed to these storms. They are likely to receive damage.
As a result, home insurance coverage in these regions has become expensive. As premiums rise, both insurers and their policyholders become concerned.
To help combat rising premiums, insurance companies look for ways to prevent future damage. They also look for ways to limit the amount of damage when losses occur.
A better course -- because of its long-term implications -- is damage prevention and reduction. Prevention means eliminating the cause of loss -- not practical when it comes to hailstorms and roofs. Reduction means minimizing damage when a loss occurs.
For hailstorms, insurers believe the best way to minimize damage is use of roofing materials that better resist hail damage. Breakthroughs in technology and standardized testing are contributing new materials expected to more effectively resist hail damage.
"Earth Gauge: Southern Wetland Woes"
Over the past 200 years, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas have lost more than 50 percent of their wetland habitat! Wetlands perform important environmental services, including absorbing and filtering pollutants from rain water runoff, reducing erosion along shorelines and streambanks, replenishing groundwater supplies, and providing vital habitat for numerous fish and waterfowl species.
Tip: Although wetlands have the ability to absorb and filter certain quantities of pollutants, excess amounts can accumulate and harm wetland plants and animals. Pesticides, fertilizers, and herbicides applied to your lawn and garden can make their way into nearby wetlands when it rains. If you must apply a product in your yard, make sure you only apply as much as you need. Keep the product away from sidewalks, driveways, and roadways, where it can be easily washed away during the next rain - and never apply a treatment when there is rain in the forecast.
(Sources: Center for Environment and Population. 2006. "U.S. National Report on Population and the Environment." Available from www.cepnet.org; USGS, 2006 "Pesticides in the Nation's Streams and Groundwater, 1992-2001." Available from: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2005/1291/; EPA Office of Wetlands, Oceans, and Watersheds.)
Climate Fact: Arboreal Advance (Chicago, IL; Cleveland, OH; Detroit, MI; Indianapolis, IN; Jacksonville, FL; Lafayette, LA; Little Rock, AR; Louisville, KY; Memphis, TN; Miami, FL; Myrtle Beach, SC; New Bern, NC; New Orleans, LA; Roanoke, VA; Shreveport, LA; Toledo, OH)
Every spot on Earth has its own “microclimate.” Each microclimate has its own unique temperature range, available moisture, exposure to sunlight, and available nutrients. Changes in regional climates can change the conditions of each microclimate in a region. For example, since 1971, as the climate in the Yellowstone National Park Region has warmed, about 40 percent of the areas studied have seen increases in tree cover. This trend is being seen in other parts of the West. In what are known as krummholz zones, or treeline zones where cold temperatures and long durations of snow cover limit tree growth, conifers grow in low-lying, shrub-like masses. Over the course of the last century, the krummholz zones of the Sierra Nevada Mountains have experienced an average minimum temperature increase of 3.7 degrees Celsius, and trees have begun to grow more and expand into areas that were previously meadows or snowfields. Mean annual branch growth in the krummholz zones increased by between 130 and 400% during this period. During particularly warm periods (1920-1945 and since 1990), increases in tree establishment in areas that were previously snowfields have been particularly noticeable. Similar patterns have been observed in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. This trend of tree establishment is likely to continue as the trees themselves shape the microclimate they live in and by doing so, help younger trees to thrive.
Received this email from a viewer y'day -- it's tongue-in-cheek so take it for what it is & have fun with it:
Subject: Hurricane Season
To: Former Floridians, current Floridians, future Floridians, and/or those who know a Floridian.
We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Gulf of Mexico and making two basic meteorological points:
(1) There is no need to panic.
(2) We could all be killed.
Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one."
Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:
STEP 1. Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2. Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3. Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Thanksgiving.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida . So we'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:
HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE: If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:
(1) It is reasonably well-built, and
(2) It is located in Nebraska
Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.
Since Hurricane Andrew, I have had an estimated 27 different home-insurance companies. This week, I'm covered by the Bob and Big Stan Insurance Company, under A policy which states that, in addition to my premium, Bob and Big Stan are entitled, on demand, to my kidneys.
SHUTTERS: Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors, and -- if it's a major hurricane -- all the toilets. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages.
Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap. The disadvantage is that, because you make them yourself, they will fall off.
Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.
Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.
"Hurricane-proof" windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska .
Hurricane Proofing Your Property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc. You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.
EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida " you live in a low-lying area.) The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.
HURRICANE SUPPLIES: If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM or Armour Vienna's.
In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies: 23 flashlights, at least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes out, to be the wrong size for the flashlights. Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for. But it's traditional, so GET some!) A 55-gallon drum of underarm deodorant. A big knife that you can strap to your leg. This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.) A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Andrew; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.) $35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.
Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers standing right next to the ocean and telling you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.
Good luck and remember: It's great living in paradise!
Those of you who aren't here yet, you should come. Really!
The bridge collapse in Minneapolis looks awful. I have a longtime friend that's now a morning anchor in the Twin Cities. I emailed him to make sure he was alright. He is o.k. but said the bridge is just 5 minutes from the station, & he crosses the span every day. He's sure to be working long, long hours. I can't help but make a few observations:
-- no national news network can "fix" this problem.
-- not all bridges are now suddenly going to begin collapsing around the U.S.
-- the gov't. can't make everything in our lives perfect
-- the collapse was not caused by global warming!
-- Yes...it's true that our President will make a visit to Minneapolis more quickly than he did to the Gulf Coast & New Orleans after "Katrina".
I went to the Jax Humane Society today to be a "celebrity" voter for their 2008 pet calendar -- an annual fundraiser. My daughters went with me & had a ball looking at the photos & the animals up for adoption. I had to choose 50 favorites from at least 200 pictures. By yourself one of these calendars as the Humane Society works to rebuild after the fire earlier this year. You'll see Butch & me inside the front cover along with other "celebrity" voters.
Well, I'm off on roadtrip home -- to Iowa. I'll update at least a couple times before getting back to my regular schedule Thu. I'll continue to update "Talking The Tropics" daily.
